Tag Archives: newsletter

It does seem, at first, a huge contradiction. On the one hand, what we know so far of China’s 14th 5-year plan apparently will lean heavily on new technologies not-yet invented to rescue the country’s economy from the pit of de-globalization the eurodollar system had thrown it into years ago. If the global economy isn’t going to recover, and there’s absolutely no sign that it will, then the one seemingly logical (though far-fetched) way forward would be if the...

In such a highly polarized, politicized environment, is such a scrupulously objective study even possible? Now that we’ve had the happy-talk about Pfizer’s messenger-RNA (mRNA) vaccine (and noted that Pfizer’s CEO sold the majority of his shares in the company immediately after the happy-talk), let’s dig into messenger-RNA (mRNA) vaccines which are fast approaching regulatory approval. Some people have concluded vaccines are not safe, regardless of their source or...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.18% to 1.0793 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Investors are trying to figure out the impact of the likelihood of a vaccine. One thing that has happened is that the market perceives less chance that the UK or New Zealand will adopt negative rates, and their respective currencies are adjusting higher. Meanwhile, the equity rally...

The Swiss Bankers Association said it regretted Raiffeisen’s decision Keystone Raiffeisen, Switzerland’s third-largest banking group, says it will leave the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) at the end of March 2021. It intends to represent its interests independently. “The banking sector and the interests of the various players in the Swiss financial centre have changed considerably in recent years,” Raiffeisen said in a statement on Tuesday. “As part of its group...

Despite rising infections worldwide, the virus news stream has turned positive; the dollar is consolidating its gains today With the 10-year yield rising to near 1.0%, US financial conditions are tightening; the Fed released its Financial Stability report yesterday and it pulled no punches; with the Fed media embargo over, many officials will speak today UK House of Lords altered the Internal Market Bill; UK employment numbers were slightly better than expected;...

The interplay of a vaccine-driven reflation rally and the (likely) split government in the US are emerging as the driving themes for markets in the months ahead.  We think reflation will win out in the end, but it could manifest itself differently this time around. While the policy-driven (fiscal and monetary) reflation theme from earlier in the year helped backstop the worst of the economic fallout, its reflationary impact was skewed towards asset price inflation....

Money – sound and unsound - Click to enlarge Interview with Rafi Farber: Part II of II Rafi Farber, pen name Austrolib, is the publisher of The End Game Investor, a daily market commentary written from an Austrian economics perspective focusing on precious metals, the Comex, and monetary analysis. His work is followed by leaders in the precious metals industry including Eric Sprott. He also writes a weekly column on the gaming industry at CalvinAyre. Contact him...

(Disclosure: Some of the links below may be affiliate links) Diversification is often called the only free lunch in investing. It is a great way to reduce the volatility of a portfolio and sometimes increase its returns. You want to avoid having all your eggs in one basket. So, instead, you are going to use many baskets. The idea of diversification is mostly to invest in many companies and many countries. But there are other forms of diversification that we are...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.0806 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Performance Overview: Pfizer’s vaccine announcement eclipsed the US election as the key market driver. It spurred the unwinding of Covid trades in terms of sectors and yields. Emerging market currencies and the majors that benefit from world growth outperformed the perceived safe-havens, like the...

Macroeconomy The upsurge in covid-19 cases will likely hurt global economic prospects in the current quarter. With a Democrat ‘blue wave’ failing materialise in the US elections, hopes of a substantial spending bill have faded and there is risk that US household incomes suffer as existing support measures fade. In the meantime, covid-19 infections continue surge in the US. The Chinese recovery continues, supported by strong exports and solid improvement in fixed...