Tag Archives: newsletter

(Here is the latest monthly column I write for Caixin.  It is on Brexit and I wrote it as an email to my mother.  Here is the link.  The text follows) To: Mother Date: July 4, 2016 Subject: Re: Did you know Britain was leaving Europe? Should I worry? Glad to see you figured out how to access your email account. I smiled when I saw your note in my inbox. Thank you, though I am not sure that Thomas Watson felt the...

Summary: European Court of Justice could rule on July 19 that private investors do not have to be bailed in before public money can be used to recapitalize banks. Italy stands to gain the most, at least immediately, from such a judgment. Italian bank shares recovered after initial weakness. After the 2007-2008 bank recapitalization by governments, which means taxpayers’ money, Europe changed the rules.  The...

Philippe Ferreira, Senior Strategist bei Lyxor. Gemäss Philippe Ferreira von Lyxor bieten CTA's im aktuellen Umfeld eine attraktive Möglichkeit, das Portfolio zu diversifizieren. Die Marktentwicklungen nach dem Brexit-Referendum waren irgendwie rätselhaft. Die Schockstarre der Märkte war nur von kurzer Dauer und die Risikoanlagen erholten sich, da sich nichts Durchgreifendes...

  Alphas and Epsilons BALTIMORE – One of the delights of being an American is that it is so easy to feel superior to your fellow countrymen. All you have to do is stand up straight and smile. Or if you really need an ego boost, just go to a local supermarket. Better yet, go to a supermarket with a Trump poster in the parking lot. Trigger warning: In the following ramble, we make fun of democracy, Trump, obesity,...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Amerexit and Brexit… Doubts About Debt This was a shortened week, due to the American holiday of July 4, celebrating the start of the war that lead to “Amerexit”, 240 years ago. The prices of the metals were up this week, +$25 in gold and +$0.48 in silver. The gold to silver ratio dropped a fraction of a point, showing...

Shortly before I was on Bloomberg TV today, Leadsom withdrew from the Tory leadership context, leaving May, who favored remaining the EU, as the likely successor of Cameron.  Leadsom had been trailing May even before her controversial weekend comments. Sterling shot up to almost $1.3020, and as was the case last week, there appeared to be a wall of sterling sellers lurking there.  Sterling was trading below $1.29...

Gold With both stocks and US Treasury prices at all time highs the market is sensing that something has to give, and that something may just be more QE, which likely explains the move higher in gold to coincide with both risk and risk-haven assets. As of moments ago, gold rose above $1,370, and was back to levels not seen since 2014. Curiously, the move higher is taking place after Friday’s “stellar” jobs report,...

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. Brexit Amid a better if not strong risk appetite, sterling has rallied two cents from yesterday’s lows near $1.28 to poke through the $1.30 level in the European morning. Click to enlarge. United Kingdom It was helped by an industrial production report that was better than expected. Industrial and manufacturing output fell 0.5% in May. This was around half of the expected decline...

Summary Don’t be fooled, the yuan has fallen more against its basket that against the dollar this year. It is not clear what China means by stable. Market forces appear to be moving in the same direction as officials wish. Here are two Great Graphics that portray two time series: the dollar-yuan exchange rate and the yuan against a trade-weighted basket.  The first chart comes from a highly reputable...

Forex has been the big banks secret gold mine, supporting their other losing operations (like normal banking business, lending, etc.).  To a large extent this has been unraveling, and this SIBOR lawsuit is another attack on their risk free profit center (FX).  Read the entire lawsuit released by Elite E Services here in full.  More than 50 unknown defendants and about 20 known FX banks are named in the case, submitted...