Tag Archives: newsletter

  Lost From the Get-Go There must be some dark corner of Hell warming up for modern, mainstream economists. They helped bring on the worst bubble ever… with their theories of efficient markets and modern portfolio management. They failed to see it for what it was. Then, when trouble came, they made it worse. But instead of atoning in a dank cell, these same economists strut onto the stage to congratulate themselves. Keynes, Photo via MIT Press The scalawag himself. Keynes provided...

The following observations are drawn from the weekly report of Japan’s Ministry of Finance unless noted otherwise.  We use the weekly data instead of monthly to identify changes of trend earlier.  We use simple convention of the week by the last rather than the first day. That means that the report for the week ending April 1 is the first week of April.  To smooth out the volatility, we will often refer to a four-week average. The latest MOF report was released earlier today.   1....

The ECB meeting is the session’s highlight.  In recognition of the risk that ECB President Draghi expresses displeasure with the premature tightening of financial conditions through the exchange rate channel is encouraged a modest bout of euro selling.  The single currency has drifted back toward the lows seen at the start of the week near $1.1275.   The euro has held above last week’s lows, which were set April 14 near $1.1235.  A retracement target of the euro’s gains since March 10 ECB...

21.04.2016 09:15  – FSO, Demography and Migration (0353-1604-10) Provisional results on population change in 2015 The population is growing and ageing: Grew by 1.1% in 2015 Neuchâtel, 21.04.2016 (FSO) – Switzerland’s population grew by 1.1% in 2015. This trend is the result of net migration and natural growth which are both positive. The population continues to age, in particular Swiss nationals. These are some of the provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office’s Population and...

21.04.2016 09:15  – FSO, Health (0353-1604-20) Health care costs and financing 2014: provisional data Health costs increase to CHF 71.2 billion Neuchâtel, 21.04.2016 (FSO) – Total health care expenditure in 2014 amounted to 71.2 billion, a 2.8% increase compared with the previous year. Growth was therefore below the five year trend. The percentage of gross domestic product spent on health care rose to 11.1%. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office’s (FSO) provisional...

Politicians around the world are working hard to build this emerging prison planet. But it’s still possible to escape. We recently released a video to show you how. Click here to watch it now. If you’ve never heard of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), you’re not alone. Few people have, and even fewer fully grasp the terrible things it foreshadows. FATCA is a U.S. law that forces every financial institution in the world to give the IRS information about its American...

  Dismal Earnings, Extreme Valuations The current earnings season hasn’t been very good so far. Companies continue to “beat expectations” of course, but this is just a silly game. The stock market’s valuation is already between the highest and third highest in history depending on how it is measured. Photo credit: Kjetil Ree Corporate earnings are clearly weakening, and yet, the market keeps climbing. The rally is a bit of a “all of worry” type of phenomenon actually, since many of...

There continues to be much discussion among investors of New York Times report last weekend in which a Saudi official threatened to sell $750 bln of US Treasuries and assets if a bill that would allow families of victims to sue the Saudi government for involvement in the 9/11 terrorist strike.   The bill, formally known as the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, enjoys bipartisan support.  The bill is cosponsored by two Republicans but is also supported, for example, by the two...

   “Prepping” for Recession GUALFIN, Argentina – Stocks are going up all over the world. Meanwhile, it appears to us that the U.S. economy is going down. Go figure. For instance, a labor-market index created by Fed economists… and closely watched by Fed chief Janet Yellen… has fallen for three straight months. It’s the first time that’s happened since 2009. In spite of relatively strong payrolls data, the Fed’s labor market conditions index doesn’t look so hot – click to enlarge. And...

The US dollar has been largely confined to yesterday’s ranges against the major currencies. China’s yuan slipped lower for the first time in four sessions, while the Shanghai Composite fell 2.3%, the most since the end of February.   While a few equity markets in Asia managed to follow suit after US equity market gains carried the S&P 500 above 2100 since last November, small gains in Tokyo (0.2%), Australia (0.5%) were sufficient to keep the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index flat.  European...