Tag Archives: newsletter

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. UBS consumption indicator printed 1.38 in June, pointing to subdued growth in Swiss private consumption in recent months. Relatively weak growth in employment was much to blame for the lackluster number, however...

The Antidote Something needs to be said. We are against the existence of irredeemable paper currency, central banking and central planning, cronyism, socialized losses and privatized gains, counterfeit credit, wealth transfers and bailouts, and welfare both corporate and personal. When we write to debunk the conspiracy theories that say manipulation is keeping gold from hitting $5,000 (one speaker here at Freedom Fest...

Head of the Financial Markets Division of the Dutch central bank, Aerdt Houben, stated in an interview for newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad published in October 2016 that releasing a bar list of the Dutch official gold reserves “would cost hundreds of thousands of euros”. In this post we’ll expose this is virtually impossible – the costs to publish the bar list should be close to zero – and speculate about the far...

A longer working life can counteract the demography-related shortage of skilled workers and spiraling social security expenditure. For this to happen, however, the reintegration of older employees must be improved and gainful employment made more attractive beyond the age of retirement. New, innovative concepts are needed that point the way toward a labor market that is more flexible and better-oriented to the needs...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: FOMC is the highlight of the week. Early look at July inflation in Europe may see less pressure. Overall household consumption in Japan is rising, helped by robust labor market, but little new price pressures. The data this week is expected to confirm what many investors have come to assume. The US economy accelerated in Q2. The eurozone economy is enjoying steady growth, but the momentum appears to...

Stock Markets EM FX was mixed on Friday, but largely firmer over the entire week. Top performers were BRL, KRW, and ZAR, while the worst were ARS, MXN, and RUB. FOMC meeting this week poses some potential risks to the global liquidity story that’s supporting EM. Within EM, the low inflation/easy monetary policy narrative should continue with data and events this week. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, July 22 - Click...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR Both Swiss Franc and Euro were moving upwards against the dollar. So CHF gained 3% versus the dollar in the last month. The Euro is the strongest currency. CHF lost around 1.3% against the Euro. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted...

SECO director Ineichen-Fleisch defended the agency’s handling of the arms deal. The head of a Swiss federal office says its handling of export permits for arms manufacturers is improving in the wake of a criminal probe into past shipments. An internal review cleared a federal employee of wrongdoing after prosecutors questioned the handling of a Bernese arms manufacturer’s requests to ship weapons to Kazakhstan in 2008...

– Bitcoin volatility shows not currency or safe haven but speculation – Volatility still very high in bitcoin and crypto currencies (see charts) – Bitcoin fell 25% over weekend; Recent high of $3,000 fell to below $1,900 – Bitcoin least volatile of cryptos, around 75% annualised volatility – Gold much more stable at just 10% annualised volatility – Bitcoin volatility against USD about 5-7 times vol of traditional...