Tag Archives: newsletter

Food supplements boost milk production among dairy cows The Swiss Farmers’ Association has called on members to stop feeding dairy cows supplements that contain palm oil. The revelation has embarrassed the organisation that has been fighting against palm oil imports from Asia. Swiss public television’s (SRF) Rundschau programme has revealed that some Swiss dairy farmers feed their cows palm oil supplements to boost milk...

This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. It shows two times series. The yellow line and the left-hand scale show the euro’s exchange rate against the dollar for the past year.  The white line depicts the spread between the US two-year and 10-year yield. I show the curve this way to be more intuitive with the euro rather than the 10-2 yr curve. To be clear as the curve has flattened the white line rises.   Despite me...

This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. It shows two times series. The yellow line and the left-hand scale show the euro’s exchange rate against the dollar for the past year.  The white line depicts the spread between the US two-year and 10-year yield. I show the curve this way to be more intuitive with the euro rather than the 10-2 yr curve. To be clear as the curve has flattened the white line rises.   Despite me...

We’ve been playing two games to mask insolvency: one is to pay the costs of rampant debt today by borrowing even more from future earnings, and the second is to create wealth out of thin air via asset bubbles. The two games are connected: asset bubbles require leverage and credit. Prices for homes, stocks, bonds, bat guano futures, etc. can only be pushed to the stratosphere if buyers have access to credit and can...

The Used Goods Question Retail sales in several countries like Germany, Japan and Switzerland continue to fall or they remain steady for years. In the United States they have strongly risen recently. We should remind readers, that used goods sold via Ebay or similar, are not contained in this statistics. Still they create economic value for the purchases. By mentality, Swiss, Germans or Japanese pay more attention so...

Switzerland’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3 % in the first quarter of 2017*. Private consumption growth expanded only slightly, while government consumption rose moderately. Following the previous quarter’s fall, investment in construction and equipment increased. The trade balance contributed notably to overall GDP growth. On the production side, growth was largely driven by manufacturing, while service...

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. The UBS consumption indicator stood at 1.48 points in April, indicating average private consumption growth. The improved mood in the retail sector supported the indicator, while a decline in new car...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: US economic data, culminating with the employment report, should be consistent with a re-acceleration of the world’s largest economy after a typical slowdown in Q1. Eurozone price pressures likely eased considerably in May. For the UK economy, the bounce in April was a fluke, and gradual slowdown continues. Japanese investors have bought foreign bonds for three weeks in a row, which is the longest streak...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Federal Reserve is on track to hike rates in the middle of June. It will be the third hike since the November election. In addition to keeping the door open to another hike this year, the Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to begin, however slowly, the reduction of its balance sheet. In the meantime, regardless of potential changes in its risk assessment, the ECB is unlikely to...