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The KOF Economic Barometer rose further and reaches a value of 106.8 in July. In June, the Barometer stood at a value of 105.8 (revised from 105.5). The Barometer has been trending above its historical average for some time now and the outlook for the Swiss economy remains favourable. In July 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer rose further – the new reading of 106.8 remains above its long-term average. The strongest...

The paper mill closure will end 125 years of industrial history in the region (Keystone) The closure of a paper factory in canton Bern will leave only one such plant supplying the newspaper and magazine industry in Switzerland from next year. The 125-year-old Utzenstorf factory will close its doors at the end of 2017, management announced on Tuesday. The decision was blamed on the strong franc that has appreciated...

Many asset managers have been bullish European shares this year. European and emerging market equities are among the favorite plays this year. Surveys of fund managers find that the allocation to US equities is among the lowest in nearly a decade. The case against the US is based on overvaluation and being a crowded trade. Many are concerned about  too hawkish of a Federal Reserve (policy mistake) or the lack of tax...

Latest Investment Outlook In his latest investment outlook, Fasanara Capital’s Franceso Filia, who two months ago explained in one chart how the “fake market” operates… … discuss what happens when a “Twin Bubble meets quantitative tightening” and answers why record-low volatility breeds market fragility and precedes system instability. We’ll have more to share on that shortly, but for now, here is Filia with his take...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.82% to 1.1244 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is narrowly mixed after selling off following the FOMC statement. Sometimes the narrative explains the price action, and sometimes the price action explains the narrative. This seems to be the case of the latter. The dollar and...

– Gold seasonal sweet spot – August and September – is coming– Gold’s performance by month from 1979 to 2016 – must see table– August sees average return of 1.4% and September of 2.5%– September is best month to own gold, followed by January, November & August Looking back at gold’s performance since 1979, August and September are big months for the yellow metal. What is the cause? No one really knows but there are...

If you study these charts closely, you can only conclude that the US economy is doomed to secular stagnation and never-ending recession. The stock market, bond yields and statistical measures of the economy can be gamed, manipulated and massaged by authorities, but the real economy cannot. This is espcially true for the core drivers of the economy, real (adjusted for inflation) household income and real disposable...

Expectations going into the OPEC monitoring meeting in St. Petersburg were low.  The OPEC agreement to reduce output appeared to be fraying.  June output appeared to have increased in several countries, and private sector estimates suggest output rose further in July.  Russia expressed reluctance to extend the agreement further.  Ecuador announced it would no longer participate in the output restraint.  Hopes that...

Last year more than 100,000 passengers passed through Zurich airport in a day, last Sunday a new record was set (Keystone) Switzerland’s main airport of Zurich is going from strength to strength, setting a new daily record. On Sunday about 107,000 passengers travelled through the airport in just one day, a spokeswoman said. The figure compares with the average daily figure of 30,000 passengers. Travellers flying to a...

La léthargie estivale des marchés a tendance à insuffler un sentiment de fausse sécurité. Les actions et l’immobilier approchent de leurs plus hauts historiques, les taux d’intérêt sont à un plus bas de 72 ans, et la plupart des investisseurs se sentent plus riches que jamais. Les banques centrales envoient les signaux d’économies fortes en annonçant des hausses de taux et une réduction de leurs bilans. Source image:...