Tag Archives: newsletter

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.27% to 1.1492 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There are large options that expire today at $1.1525 (1.2 bln euros) and $1.1550 (1.9 bln). Given the still substantial gross long euro positions in the futures market, it remains an open question of what level would trigger a capitulation. A...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

The number of people who applied for a Swiss driving licence dropped by 2% last year, with applications from 18- to 24-year-olds down 3%. Some 5.8 million people owned a driving licence for cars in 2017, the Federal Roads Officeexternal link said on Tuesday. This 1% increase was due not only to new drivers but also to foreign licences being exchanged for Swiss ones and natural population growth, it explained. + Why...

The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown? These are critical questions for investors and ones that can’t be...

In Gold, Silver and Bitcoin We Trust? Goldnomics Podcast (Episode 5) interview with Ronald-Peter Stoferle We interview our friend Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, partner in Incrementum in Liechtenstein and author of the must read, annual gold report ‘In Gold We Trust’ in this the fifth episode of the Goldnomics Podcast. There are 3 key “tides of change” that Ronni has analysed and he warns that the “liquidity party” of the...

Redefined Terms and Absurd Targets At one time, the Federal Reserve’s sole mandate was to maintain stable prices and to “fight inflation.”  To the Fed, the financial press, and most everyone else “inflation” means rising prices instead of its original and true definition as an increase in the money supply.  Rising prices are a consequence – a very painful consequence – of money printing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.1514 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The day began out with equity losses in Asia before a sharp recovery, perhaps initiated in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up a little more than 0.5%. The Shanghai Composite fell more than 1% before closing 0.25% better. Market...

A Purely Technical Market Long time readers may recall that we regard Bitcoin and other liquid big cap cryptocurrencies as secondary media of exchange from a monetary theory perspective for the time being. The wave of speculative demand that has propelled them to astonishing heights was triggered by market participants realizing that they have the potential to become money. The process of achieving more widespread...

In Switzerland, much in life revolves around the canton. Cantons have their own health, social and education systems, parliaments and tax rates. Federal government, based in Bern, is a layer that sits over the top, bringing the cantons together as Switzerland. For some cantons, nationhood has a cost. For others it means extra money. Every year, based on a collection of complicated formulae, the federal government...

US Industrial Production dipped in May 2018. It was the first monthly drop since January. Year-over-year, IP was up just 3.5% from May 2017, down from 3.6% in each of prior three months. The reason for the soft spot was that American industry is being pulled in different directions by the two most important sectors: crude oil and autos. In the middle is the middling performance of manufacturing especially for consumer...