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© Arturo Osorno | Dreamstime.com Net migration into Switzerland from the EU was down by 11% last year, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). In 2017, a net 31,250 people from the EU and EFTA moved to Switzerland. And, with a 4% decline in the number arriving over the five months to May 2018, the fall looks set to continue. For some nationalities the net flow went into reverse. In 2017, more...

The US economy is among the strongest among the large economies. Goosed by the never-fail elixir of tax cuts and spending increases, the US economy is accelerating.  Nevertheless, we continue to see the fiscal boost as short-lived, and a recent Fed paper suggested that fiscal stimulus in an upswing may not have the same multiplier as during a downturn. Evidence of late-cycle behavior continues to accumulate. We have...

[embedded content] Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun. Related posts: Bi-Weekly Economic Review (VIDEO) Bi-Weekly Economic Review Bi-Weekly Economic Review Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Oil, Interest Rates & Economic Growth Bi-Weekly Economic Review Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets? Bi-Weekly...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.01% to 1.1698 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Sterling’s 0.6% loss (@ ~$1.3120) is co-leading the downside in the firm US dollar environment, having to share that role with the New Zealand dollar today, where a weaker manufacturing PMI (52.8 from 54.4) is taking a toll. Both sterling and...

Short-term rebound in the UK, driven by services. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published this week a new rolling monthly estimate of UK GDP. The release pointed to a rebound of growth in Q2 (quarterly data will be published on August 8). According to the ONS, the rolling three-month growth to end-May was 0.2%, compared to 0% in the three months to end-April (see chart below). Looking at the details, the...

The WIPO annual innovation report is one of many that features Switzerland highly Switzerland retained its crown as the world’s most innovative country for the eighth year in a row, according to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) – the global intellectual property agency. Switzerland came top of the innovation list ahead of the Netherlands, Sweden, Britain, Singapore, the United States, Finland,...

When it comes to the stock market and the corporate cash flow condition, our attention is usually drawn to stock repurchases. With good reason. These controversial uses of scarce internal funds are traditionally argued along the lines of management teams identifying and correcting undervalued shares. History shows, conclusively, that hasn’t really been true. Last year’s tax reform law was meant ideally to spur...

The publication of the Bitcoin white paper immediately after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 is hardly a mere coincidence. The financial collapse especially touched on one crucial question: Money talks, but who talks money if you will? According to Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonym behind Bitcoin, it’s the world’s central and commercial banks which rule over our money. As a careful analysis of the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.65% to 1.1698 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar has broken out against the Japanese yen. Despite the global equity drop and decline in US yields, which often underpin the yen, the yen fell to its lowest level since early January yesterday and is continuing to sell-off today. The...