Tag Archives: newsletter

Marc ChandlerMarc Chandler - Click to enlarge The combination of divergence and the US policy mix is underpinning the dollar and I was invited to share my views on CNBC’s Squawk Box earlier today. It dovetailed nicely Matthew Diczok (from Merrill Lynch) views on Fed policy and US interest rates. In addition, I note the troubled spot Europe finds itself with German industrial output unexpectedly falling for a third...

Swiss Data Protection Commissioner Adrian Lobsiger say the Finance Ministry has failed to heed his earlier demands. The Swiss Data Protection Commissioner has issued a legal complaint against the Finance Ministry for sending the names of bank employees, lawyers, accountants and other third parties to the United States to assist with tax evasion investigations. The Swiss Supreme Court has already issued a ruling that...

A Month with a Bad Reputation A certain degree of nervousness tends to suffuse global financial markets when the month of October approaches. The memories of sharp slumps that happened in this month in the past – often wiping out the profits of an entire year in a single day – are apt to induce fear. However, if one disregards outliers such as 1987 or 2008, October generally delivers an acceptable performance....

Last week, we shined a spotlight on a crack in the monetary system that few people outside of Switzerland (and not many inside either) were aware of. There is permanent gold backwardation measured in Swiss francs. Everyone knows that the Swiss franc has a negative interest rate, but so far as we know, Keith is the only one who predicted this would lead to its collapse (and he was quite early, having written that in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.24% at 1.1395 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The markets are having a rough adjustment to the return of the Chinese markets are the week-long holiday. The cut in the required reserves failed to lift investor sentiment.  The Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites fell almost 4%, and...

Interest rates, led by the US, have accelerated to the upside. With price pressures generally rising and oil prices at four-year highs, it is understandable. Market participants need to see the breakout that has lifted US 10-year yields to their highest level in seven years is confirmed in subsequent price action. The first test was passed as the disappointing jobs growth in September could have been an excuse to push...

Die Nationalbank hat die Schweizer Zahlungsbilanz für das zweite Quartal veröffentlicht. Damit bietet sich erstmals die Gelegenheit, nachzuprüfen, ob die viel zitierten Europaängste Fluchtkapital ins Land gespült haben. Auch ohne Intervention läuft alles in ihrem Sinne: Schweizer Nationalbank in Bern. Foto: Getty Images Zur Erinnerung: Im März wurde in Italien ein neues Parlament gewählt, die den beiden Europagegnern...

A Surprise Rout in the Bond Market At the time of writing, the stock market is recovering from a fairly steep (by recent standards) intraday sell-off. We have no idea where it will close, but we would argue that even a recovery into the close won’t alter the status of today’s action – it is a typical warning shot. Here is what makes the sell-off unique: 30 Year Bond and 10 Year Note Yields, Nov 2016 - Oct 201830 year...

Robots will replace humans in up to a quarter of all jobs by 2020, says McKinsey. The growing trend of digitization in the economy will render a million Swiss jobs redundant in the next 12 years, according to a new study. Some 800,000 jobs will be clawed back by new IT openings, but much of the workforce will need to be re-trained, warns consultancy firm McKinsey. Automation will mainly take the place of manual labour,...

The defaults and currency crises in the periphery will then move into the core. It’s funny how unintended consequences so rarely turn out to be good. The intended consequences of central banks’ unprecedented tsunami of stimulus (quantitative easing, super-low interest rates and easy credit / abundant liquidity) over the past decade were: 1. Save the banks by giving them credit-money at near-zero interest that they...