Tag Archives: Japan

The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results. It’s actually worse than that since all that I’m talking about means it is these guys who...

SUMMARY Japan’s services PMI surged by 2.2 points to 52.4 in October after a notable drop in September. The manufacturing PMI rose modestly to 52.9 in October from 52.4 in September. The strength in services PMI may suggest momentum in Japan’s domestic economy remains solid. Consumption recovery and expansion of corporate capex are driving growth. However, headwinds are building on the external fronts. Elevated trade...

Trade war stuff didn’t really hit the tape until several months into 2018. There were some noises about it back in January, but there was also a prominent liquidation in global markets in the same month. If the world’s economy hit a wall in that particular month, which is the more likely candidate for blame? We see it register in so many places. Canada, Europe, Brazil, etc. It does seem as if someone flipped a switch...

United States With most of the major central bank meetings and important economic data out of the way, the dog days of August are upon us. In terms of drivers, it means that players will have to look elsewhere for inspiration and it means that market liquidy is likely not at its best. That said, there are a few economic reports that will grab investors’ attention, even if briefly. Among them will be the US July CPI....

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY. Interest rates are on the rise again, the 10 year Treasury yield punching through 3% again this morning. That is an indication that growth and/or inflation expectations have risen...

You would never have guessed it reading many of the op-eds and pundits pronouncing the end to globalization or the West, or liberalism. Global equities have rallied. Of course,  stock prices are not the end all and be all, but it stands in stark contrast to the cries that the sky is falling. The MSCI World Index of developed markets advanced for the second consecutive week adding 2.2%. The US S&P 500 moved above...

The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown? These are critical questions for investors and ones that can’t be...

Der Lohn dafür ist ein Schrei ins Gesicht: Dieser Arbeiter muss einen Schimpansen einfangen, der aus dem Zoo in Sendai ausgebrochen ist. Foto: Kyodo News, AP, Keystone Japan kämpft gegen ein wirtschaftliches Phänomen an, das mancher Wirtschaftsminister in der EU als Luxusproblem bezeichnen würde. Es gibt zu viele Stellen und zu wenige Arbeitskräfte. Die Arbeitslosenrate liegt so tief wie zuletzt vor einem Vierteljahrhundert. Und während in Ländern wie Italien oder Spanien sich manchmal...

Back in February, Japan’s Cabinet Office reported that Real GDP in Japan had grown in Q4 2017 for the eighth consecutive quarter. It was the longest streak of non-negative GDP since the 1980’s. Predictably, this was hailed as some significant achievement, a true masterstroke of courage and perseverance. It was taken as a sign that Abenomics and QQE was finally working (never mind the four years). Those making that...

The risk budget changes this month as I add back the 5% cash raised in late October. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is still 50% while the risk side now rises to 50% as well. I raised the cash back in late October due to the extreme overbought nature of the stock market and frankly it was a mistake. Stocks went from overbought to more overbought and I missed the rally to all time highs in...