Tag Archives: Japan

“At the end of the day, negative interest rates are taxes in sheep’s clothing. Few economists would ever claim that raising taxes on households will stimulate spending. So why would they think negative interest rates will?” Those are the shocking words of St.Louis Fed Director of Research Christopher Waller whose brief note today will be required reading for everyone at The Bank of Japan, The ECB and every other central banker on the verge of NIRP… If you pick up any principles of...

The Inflation Illusion We hear more and more talk about the possibility of imposing negative interest rates in the US. In a recent article former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke asks what tools the Fed has left to support the economy and inter alia discusses the use of negative rates. We first have to define what we mean by negative interest rates. For nominal rates it’s simple. When the interest rate charged goes negative we have negative nominal rates. To get the real rate of interest we have...

In an interesting interview with Finanz und Wirtschaft, Bianco Research president Jim Bianco discusses a variety of topics such as negative interest rates turning the entire credit process upside down, bank balance sheets being even more complex and concentrated than before the financial crisis, energy loans being an accident waiting to happen, the markets having veto power over the Fed, and gold having more room to run. * * * Mr. Bianco, negative interest are causing a lot of stir at the...

When Denmark introduced negative interest rates in 2012, it was a pioneer. But the policy has become such an accepted part of central banks’ toolbox in the years since that financial pundits hardly batted an eyelash when Hungary became the world’s sixth central bank to introduce negative rates in March 2016. As the practice becomes more widespread, the question of how low interest rates can go has become increasingly relevant for investors.   While every country (or region, in the case...

Was the Bank of Japan’s surprise foray into negative interest rates this January truly motivated, as some have said, by a desire to weaken the yen? Watch Tomomi Inada, Chair of the Policy Research Council for Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, discuss the central bank’s dramatic policy shift.  

Economic forecasting, no matter how complex the underlying model may be, is essentially about extrapolating historical trends. We showed last week how economic models completely fail to pick up on structural shifts using Japan as an example. On the other hand, if an economy doesn’t really change much, as in the case of Australia over the last thirty years, model “forecast” are generally quite accurate. However, spending millions of dollars to do the job of a ruler doesn’t seem like wise...

The following observations are drawn from the weekly report of Japan’s Ministry of Finance unless noted otherwise.  We use the weekly data instead of monthly to identify changes of trend earlier.  We use simple convention of the week by the last rather than the first day. That means that the report for the week ending April 1 is the first week of April.  To smooth out the volatility, we will often refer to a four-week average. The latest MOF report was released earlier today.   1....

In the latest semi-annual Keynesian incantation spewed out by the world’s best pseudo-scientists, we learn that growth has been too slow for too long and that in itself is the cause of slow growth. First, they promote debt-funded consumption because spending – money supply/credit and velocity – is equivalent to nominal GDP growth, and as long as you have nominal GDP growth you can always add more debt to the existing stock ad infinitum. That obviously came crashing down in 2008. At that...

Gold and Silver Are Manipulated Deutsche Bank admitted today that it participated with other big banks in manipulating gold and silver prices. In 2014, Switzerland’s financial regulator (FINMA) found “serious misconduct” and a “clear attempt to manipulate precious metals benchmarks” by UBS employees in precious metals trading, particularly with silver. Reuters reported: Swiss regulator FINMA said on Wednesday that it found a “clear attempt” to manipulate precious metals benchmarks during...