Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% to 1.0387 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The markets continue to digest the implications of yesterday’s Fed move and Beijing’s signals of more economic supportive efforts as the Bank of England’s move awaited. The US 5–10-year curve is straddling inversion and the 2-10 curve has flattened as the Fed moves from one horn of the...
Read More »European Currencies Continue to Bear the Brunt
Overview: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global response is a game-changer, as Fed Chair Powell told Congress yesterday. The UK-based research group NISER estimated that world output will be cut by 1% next year or $1 trillion, and global inflation will be boosted by three percentage points this year and two next. The recovery in US stocks yesterday may have helped lift Asia Pacific shares today (China and India are notable exceptions). However,...
Read More »FX Daily, January 17: PBOC Eases, but the Yuan Firms
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.0424 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Russia is thought to be behind the cyber-attack on Ukraine at the end of last week, but a military attack over the weekend may be underpinning risk appetites today. The dollar’s pre-weekend gains are being pared slightly. Led by the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, the greenback...
Read More »How the Market Responds to US CPI may set the Near-Term Course
Overview: US stocks built on the recovery started on Monday and Powell’s suggestion of letting the balance sheet shrink later this year eased some speculation of a fourth hike this year, which seemed to allow the Treasury market to stabilize. What amounts to a greater appetite for risk is carrying over into Asia Pacific activity today. Many of the large bourses advanced more than 1%, with the Hang Seng up almost 2.8% and the Nikkei up nearly as much. Bond...
Read More »Fed Unleashes Animal Spirits
Overview: The Fed's hawkish pivot came a few weeks before yesterday's FOMC meeting, which confirmed more or less what the market had already largely anticipated. Buy the (dollar) on rumors (of tapering and more aggressive stance on rates) and sell the fact unfolded, and unleashed the risk-appetites which rippled through the capital markets. US stocks rallied yesterday, and the futures point to a gap higher opening today. Large Asia Pacific bourses, led by a 2%...
Read More »Has the Market Carried the Fed’s Water? Is the Dollar Vulnerable to Buy the Rumor and Sell the Fact?
Overview: The US dollar is trading with a bit of heavier bias against most of the major currencies as the focus turns to today's FOMC meeting, where a clear consensus has emerged in favor of faster tapering and a dot plot pointing to a steeper pace rate hikes. Emerging market currencies led by Turkey and South Africa are mostly lower. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is lower for the third straight session. The US 10-year Treasury yield is flat, near...
Read More »No Turnaround Tuesday for Equities?
Overview: Activity in the capital markets is subdued today, ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting conclusion and the ECB meeting on Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific equity index fell for the third consecutive session. European bourses are heavy after the Stoxx 600 posted an outside down day yesterday. Today would be the fifth consecutive decline. Selling pressure on the US futures indices continues after yesterday's losses. Australia and New Zealand bonds played...
Read More »Dollar Starts the Week Bid ahead of the FOMC
Overview: Equities, bonds, and the dollar begin the new week on a firm note. Japanese, Chinese, Australian, and New Zealand equities advanced in the Asia Pacific region. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline, and US futures are 0.25%-0.35% higher. The US 10-year yield is a little softer at 1.48%. European benchmark yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower, and near 0.71%, the UK Gilt's yield is at a three-month low. The dollar is rising against all the major...
Read More »Fragile Calm Returns and Powell’s Anti-Inflation Rhetoric Ratchets Up
Overview: Into the uncertainty over the implications of Omicron, the Federal Reserve Chairman injected a particularly hawkish signal into the mix in his testimony before the Senate. These are the two forces that are shaping market developments. Travel restrictions are being tightened, though the new variant is being found in more countries, and it appears to be like closing the proverbial barn door after the horses have bolted. Equities are higher. The MSCI Asia...
Read More »Sentiment Remains Fragile
Overview: The fire that burnt through the capital markets before the weekend, triggered by the new Covid mutation, burned itself out in the Asian Pacific equity trading earlier today. A semblance of stability, albeit fragile and tentative, has emerged. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 1%, led by real estate, information technology, and energy. US index futures are trading higher, with the NASDAQ leading. Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer. The US 10-year Treasury...
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