Tag Archives: Featured

In November, new vaccines showed great promise in fighting Covid-19, and the exhilaration was clear in markets around the world. However, the enthusiasm was not sustained. Many experts and political leaders rushed to warn that while a vaccine could mean the end of the health crisis, the economy – and oil markets in particular – are still in for a rough ride. The previous mechanism whereby the virus drove the economy,...

Most of Europe is back in lockdown, presumably as punishment for our sins of going outside during the summer, and as preparation for the Christmas holidays. It feels like being back in school, where a patronizing teacher indicates that the children are incapable of behaving themselves. To some Europeans, this is a surprising development. Yet to lovers of liberty, the fact that power leads to ever-expanding power is no news. There are many “I told you so’s” in this...

The ISM’s Non-manufacturing PMI continued to decelerate from its high registered all the way back in July 2020. In that month, the headline index reached 58.1, the best since early 2019, and for many signaling that everything was coming up “V.” Since, however, it’s been a slow downward trend that, when realizing early 2019 wasn’t exactly robust, only reconfigures the very nature of this rebound. When comparing comebacks from outsized economic contractions, the best...

The 2020 election was a roller coaster experience for both sides and for all International observers who understood its massive economic and geopolitical implications for the rest of the West. There was no shortage of drama, sensationalism, half-truths and full untruths at every stage of the process, from the Democratic primaries right to this day, with politicians and partisan journalists painting their own version of reality, fueling divisions and rallying their...

In baseball, there is a situation where a base runner is sprinting to home plate and can’t see what is happening behind him. Totally focused on scoring, he doesn’t know if the outfielder is throwing a ball that will reach home plate first. That’s where we get the phrase “out of left field.” (If the ball were coming from right field, the runner could actually see it.) COVID-19 was the ultimate ball out of left field. Yes, we knew viruses spread and pandemics were...

(Disclosure: Some of the links below may be affiliate links) November 2020 is over, and it was another of these 2020 months. Nothing much happened during this month because we could not see many people and several things were canceled. At least, we are both healthy. And this was the last month before we move to the new house. We are really looking forward to that. This will keep us occupied! And this will keep our mind off this boring virus. We still had to buy...

There are new efforts to pass another round of stimulus sooner rather than later; we warn against getting too optimistic; US bond yields rose in anticipation of stimulus; Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gave somewhat conflicting outlooks for the US The Fed releases its Beige Book report for the December FOMC meeting; ADP releases its private sector jobs estimate, with consensus at 430k; Brazil outperformed yesterday on positive fiscal comments from...

2. Dezember 2020 – von Ludwig von Mises Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) Die breite Masse der Menschen hängt keiner eigenen Idee an, weder einer guten, noch einer schlechten. Stattdessen suchen sie sich unter den vielen von intellektuellen Vordenkern erdachten Ideologien eine aus. Ihre Wahl aber ist verbindlich und bestimmt den Gang der Dinge. Wenn die Masse schlechte Grundsätze bevorzugt, ist das Unheil nicht mehr abzuwenden. Die Sozialphilosophie der Aufklärung...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.081 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 4(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After wobbling late yesterday on what appears to be old news from Pfizer about a disruption of the vaccine’s supply chain, equity markets have recovered, and risk appetites remain intact. With more than 1% gains in South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex, the MSCI Asia Pacific...

The ISM reported a small decline in its manufacturing PMI today. The index had moved up to 59.3 for the month of October 2020 in what had been its highest since September 2018. For November, the setback was nearly two points, bringing the headline down to an estimate of 57.5. At that level, it really wasn’t any different from where it had been at its multi-year high the month before. Neither are indicative of any sort of “V” shaped recovery, or any shaped recovery....