Tag Archives: Featured

Christine Lagarde will chair her third ECB meeting Thursday.  She faces growing risks of recession but also widespread skepticism within the ECB regarding the efficacy of negative rates.  Markets have priced in several rate cuts this year.  Here, we discuss what measures the ECB may take this week. POLICY OUTLOOK It’s worth noting that even with the complicated voting rights system, a formal vote is not always needed to act.  For instance, at the September 2019...

Basic recession economics says that when you end up with too much of some commodity, too much inventory that you can’t otherwise sell, you have to cut the price in order to move it. Discounting is a feature of those times. What about a monetary panic? This might sound weird, but same thing. In other words, if you have too much cash (stay with me) and not enough takers, then the price you’ll accept to lend that cash must fall to accommodate the lack of demand. How...

As I sit here Monday evening with the Dow having closed down 2000 points and the 10-year Treasury yield around 0.5%, the title of this update seems utterly ridiculous. With the new coronavirus still spreading and a collapse in oil prices threatening the entire shale oil industry, recession is now the expected outcome. Most observers seem to question only the potential length and depth of the coming downturn. The case of recession does seem to be one of those open...

Waiting for departure in Olten, northwestern Switzerland. (© Keystone / Peter Klaunzer) The number of people taking trains in Switzerland has fallen since the outbreak of the coronavirus, resulting in a huge financial hit, Swiss Federal Railways reported on Tuesday. The number of passengers across Switzerland has fallen by 10-20%, while the number of people travelling to Italy has dropped by 90% and those going to France has fallen by 60% compared to before the virus...

Global financial markets are finally seeing a measure of calm return; local Chinese media is sounding more confident that the situation is now under control The White House will announce fiscal measures today; five states hold primaries and one holds a caucus with 352 total pledged delegates up for grabs Italy announced that it is extending travel curbs beyond just the north to the entire nation; further fiscal measures there will be seen Japan reported February...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.0597 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It appears after a few days of miscues, US officials struck the right chord, and the global capital markets seemed to stabilize shortly after the US session ended. President Trump’s press conference today is expected to spell out in greater detail relief for households and businesses....

Fewer tourists than usual on the Kappellbrücke, Lucerne. (Keystone / Alexandra Wey) The Swiss hotel industry could lose out on up to half a billion francs in 2020 due to the impact of Covid-19, the boss of the country’s tourism body has said. Martin Nydegger of Switzerland Tourism said on Monday that he expects the virus to account for some 2.1 million fewer overnight stays in Swiss hotels this year compared with 2019, amounting to financial losses of CHF532 million...

According to the Financial Times’s February 20 article “Why Sweden Ditched Its Negative Rate Experiment,” economists are pondering whether Sweden’s central bank experiment with negative interest rate was a success. Sweden’s Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, introduced negative interest rates in early 2015. The reason given by central bank policymakers for the introduction of the negative interest was to counter deflation. Note that for the period November...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Bern, March 9th, 2020 – Registered unemployment in February 2020 – According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 117,822 unemployed people were registered with the regional employment centers at the end of February 2020, 3,196 fewer than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 2.6% in January 2020 to 2.5% in the reporting month. Unemployment decreased by 1,651 people (-1.4%)...

[In the second part of this interview, Brazilian journalist André de Godoy speaks with Antony Mueller about the relationship between credit and money, the inflationary process, and its relation to the real economy. How will the current debt binge end? What comes after Quantitative Easing?] André de Godoy: Ludwig von Mises mentions in his books that credit expansion is one of the causes of the inflation beyond the monetary expansion. What are the similarities and...