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Tag Archives: Featured

Cool Video: Bloomberg Clip from Discussion on Emerging Markets

Bloomberg Clip from Discussion on Emerging Markets In my first television appearance since joining Bannockburn Global Forex, I joined Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on the Bloomberg set. In this nearly 2.5 min clip, we talk about the Indonesia rupiah and the dollar’s move above the IDR15000 level for the first time since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. I suggest there are several factors weighing on many emerging...

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China’s Industrial Dollar

In December 2006, just weeks before the outbreak of “unforeseen” crisis, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed the breathtaking advance of China’s economy. He was in Beijing for a monetary conference, and the unofficial theme of his speech, as I read it, was “you can do better.” While economic gains were substantial, he said, they were uneven. To keep China going down the same path of rapid growth,...

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FX Daily, October 02: Greenback Advances

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.32% at 1.135 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is rising against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are the exceptions and are holding their own. Global equities are mixed. Asia, excluding Japan, was mostly lower,...

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A Word About the Q2 COFER Report

The IMF reports the most authoritative currency allocation of global reserves at the end of every quarter with a quarter delay. Invariably, an economist, strategist, or journalist is inspired to write why some data nugget confirms the demise of the dollar as the dominant currency. Given the unorthodox US President, his criticism of Fed policy, and desire for a weaker dollar, the protectionism, and trillion-dollar...

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Italy tests the EU’s tolerance

The populist government’s plans to increase the deficit could set it on a collision course with Brussels. We remain bearish Italian bonds and euro peripheral bonds in general. Leaders of Italy’s coalition government and the finance minister yesterday agreed on a 2.4% GDP deficit target. The new target is higher than our expectation of a deficit “above but close to 2.0%” in 2019. For us, the key issue is not so much the...

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Tax amnesty ends for undeclared EU assets

Swiss owners of property abroad had until September 30 to come forward and declare it The automatic exchange of information between Switzerland and the European Union came into effect on Monday. Owning property abroad without declaring it will no longer be possible. The deadline of September 30 ended the possibility of coming forward voluntarily, reported Swiss public televisionexternal link, RTS, on Sunday. For...

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Fixing Infrastructure Isn’t as Simple as Spending Another Trillion Dollars

It isn’t easy to add new subway lines or new highways, and so “solutions” don’t really exist. If there’s one thing Americans can still agree on, it’s that America needs to spend more on infrastructure which is visibly falling apart in many places. This capital investment creates jobs and satisfies everyone’s ideological requirements: investment in public infrastructure helps enterprises, local governments and...

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LBMA Clearing and Vaulting data reveal the absurdity of the London ‘Gold’ Market

The first day of each month sees the reporting of a number of statistics about the London Gold Market by the bullion bank led London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). These statistics focus on clearing data and vault holdings data and are reported in a 1 month lag basis for clearing activity and a 3 month lag basis for vault holdings data. Therefore the latest clearing data just published is for the month of August,...

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Permanent Gold Backwardation, Report 30 Sep 2018

Sometimes, one just needs to look in the right place. And often in those cases, it just takes a conversation to alert one where to look. We had a call with a Swiss company this week, to discuss gold financing for their business. They reminded us that there is a negative interest rate on Swiss francs. And then they said that a swap of francs for gold has a cost. That is, the CHF GOFO rate is negative (the dollar based...

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FX Daily, October 01: NAFTA Deal Struck, Softer EMU Mfg PMI, and Firm Greenback Starts Week

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.16% at 1.1415 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are extending its pre-weekend gains on news that a new NAFTA deal (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement USMCA) has been struck. Against most of the other major and emerging market currencies, the US dollar...

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