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Tag Archives: economy

Global Asset Allocation Update: Step Away From The Portfolio

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolios this month. The post Fed meeting market reaction was a bit surprising in its intensity. The actions of the Fed were, to my mind anyway, pretty much as expected but apparently the algorithms that move markets today were singing from a...

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Is The Swiss National Bank A Fraud?

The price of shares in The Swiss National Bank is up 11 days in a row, soaring 150% in the last two months. SNB Stock Price, 2010 - 2017(see more posts on Swiss National Bank Stock, ) - Click to enlarge That sounds like a ‘tulip’ bubble-like ‘fraud’… Bitcoin and SNB, 2013 - 2017(see more posts on Bitcoin, Swiss National Bank Stock, ) - Click to enlarge The SNB is up over 120% in Q3 so far – more than double...

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Fed’s Asset Bubbles Now At The Mercy Of The Rest Of The World’s Central Bankers

“Like watching paint dry,” is how The Fed describes the beginning of the end of its experiment with massively inflating its balance sheet to save the world. As former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, however, Yellen’s decision today means the risk-suppression boot is on the other foot (or feet) of The SNB, The ECB, and The BoJ; as he writes, “have no fear, The SNB knows what it’s doing.” As we reported previously, In...

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Expectations and Acceptance of Potential

The University of Michigan reports that consumer confidence in September slipped a little from August. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment registered 95.3 in the latest month, down from 96.8 in the prior one. Both of those readings are in line with confidence estimates going back to early 2014 when consumer sentiment supposedly surged. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Jan 1997 - 2017(see more posts on...

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IP Weathers Storms But Not Cars

In late August 2006, ABC News asked more than a dozen prominent economists to evaluate the impacts of hurricane Katrina on the US economy. The cataclysmic storm made landfall on August 29, 2005, devastating the city of New Orleans and the surrounding Gulf coast. The cost in human terms was unthinkable, and many were concerned, as people always are, that in economic terms the country might end up in similar...

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Swiss Mystery: Someone Keeps Flushing €500 Bank Notes Down The Toilet

While there are several comments one can make here, “dirty money”, “flush with cash” and “flushing money down the toilet” certainly coming to mind, perhaps the ECB was on to something when it warned that €500 “Bin Laden” bills (which it has since discontinued to print) tend to be used by criminals. The reason for this is that in recent weeks, Swiss prosecutors have been gripped by a mystery, trying to figure out why...

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Retail Sales and the End of ‘Reflation’

There will be an irresistible urge to the make this about the weather, but more and more data shows it’s not any singular instance. Nor is it transitory. What does prove to be temporary time and again is the upside. The economy gets hit (by “dollar” events), bounces back a little, and then goes right back into the dumps. This, it seems, is the limited extent of cyclicality in these times. Retail sales were again very...

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The CPI Comes Home

There seems to be an intense if at times acrimonious debate raging inside the Federal Reserve right now. The differences go down to its very core philosophies. Just over a week ago, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer abruptly resigned from the Board of Governors even though many believed he was a possible candidate to replace Chairman Yellen at the end of her term next year. His letter of resignation only cited “personal...

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Swiss National Bank Bubble Regains Lead Over Bitcoin

A week ago we tweeted… Dear @SNB_BNS_en – you are the next bitcoin: congratulations pic.twitter.com/cld4YNbNLb — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 14, 2017 But as Bitcoin rebounded from its China challenges, it overtook The SNB once again as bubbliest bubble. However, a 13% spike in the share price of The Swiss National Bank today has put an end to that leaving the central bank back in first place among the...

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A Clear Anchor

 All the way back in January I calculated the total size of China’s 2016 fiscal “stimulus.” Starting in January 2016, authorities conducted what was an enormous spending program. As it had twice before, the government directed increased “investment” from State-owned Enterprises (SOE).By my back-of-the-envelope numbers, the scale of this fiscal side program was about RMB 1.45 trillion, or nearly 2% of GDP. It was about...

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