Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

I joined Charles Payne on Fox Business TV for a broad economic discussion today.  Payne, like many, are concerned that the Fed continues to tighten and worries this is going to end the business cycle. He also argued that the strong dollar was a significant threat of US multinational earnings. Charles Payne on Fox Business TV In this roughly 6.5 minute clip of the entire discussion (here), I suggest that the best...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.20% at 1.1368 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is enjoying broad gains against most major and emerging market currencies. Sterling, dragged down by Brexit concerns, is leading the way. With today’s losses, sterling has shed nearly 3.7 cents over the last four...

The Federal Reserve’s confidence in the economy and its need to continue to gradually increase interest rates stands in sharp contrast to most of the other major central banks. The European Central Bank will finish its asset purchases at the end of the year, but it is in no position to begin to normalize interest rates. Indeed, the risk is that it may feel compelled to off another Targeted Long-Term Repo, which would,...

When William Gibson would say that “the future is already here-it is just not evenly distributed,” he was referring to how wealth and location determine one’s access to technological advances (the future). Yet it equally can apply to the US-Chinese relationship. In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, former Treasury Secretary Paulson seemed to express the views of many. If neither the US nor China changes its...

The Federal Reserve kept policy on hold, and its sparse statement gave little clue as to what it makes of the pressures in the money markets or the weakness in the housing market. The effective Fed funds rate is bumping against the cap provided by the interest rate on reserves. Some repo rates, like SOFR (the intended replacement for LIBOR), have on occasion poked above what should be the ceiling. The housing market is...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.13% at 1.1415 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar’s gains scored in the wake of the Fed’s signal that will continue on course to gradually hike rates have been extended. Most emerging market currencies are lower as well. Equity markets are heavy. Bond yields in Europe...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.03% at 1.1455 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The dollar has fallen against nearly every currency. It had been moving lower at the start of the week, but what seems like a correction broadened and deepened following the US midterm election. The outcome was largely in line with...

Broadly speaking, the risk is that the dollar’s cyclical advance is not complete. The drivers will likely remain in place through at least the middle of next year. Additional gradual interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and a favorable policy mix underpin the dollar. The Federal Reserve projects four rate hikes between now and the end of next year. Quarterly rate hikes through the middle of next year are the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% at 1.1452 Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies today, largely consolidating its recent losses. Equities are mixed.  In Asia, Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong equities gained around 1%, while most other bourses were softer. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed in late morning...

Turkey’s economic challenges arise from the imbalances created during the economic boom that saw poverty halved between 2002 and 2011, extensive urbanization, and integration in the world economy through trade and capital flows. The dramatic economic changes saw the rise of Erdogan, who was re-elected as President for a second term in June. His party (AKP) is joined by the Nationalists (MHP). The imbalances, amidst a...