Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.13% at 1.1449 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Led by a dramatic recovery in US stocks, global equities are moving higher today. Before last week, decline, the US stock market lacked breadth, but not only did the S&P 500 and NASDAQ post their biggest advance in several...
Read More »Great Graphic: What is Happening to Global Equities?
The decline in the global equity market is the most serious since the February and March spill. In this Great Graphic, the white line is the S&P 500. With the setback, it is up a little more than 8% for the year. It managed to recover fully from the sell-off earlier in the year. The fuchsia line is the MSCI World Index of developed countries. It is up 1.25% year-to-date, and it never managed to take out the high set...
Read More »FX Daily, October 16: Semblance of Stability Returns
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.32% at 1.1461 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Although the S&P 500 was unable to sustain early gains yesterday, the largely consolidative session was part of the stabilization of equities after last week’s jump in volatility. Asia and European stocks are also cautiously...
Read More »Macro Cheat Sheet
Key considerations and price for selected currencies distilled into four bullet points.US Dollar The dollar’s recovery ahead of the weekend was aided by the stabilization of the stock market, where the S&P 500 managed to close back above the psychologically important 200-day moving average. Interpolating from prices, the market does not expect the President’s criticism to alter the Fed’s course. US data highlights...
Read More »FX Daily, October 15: Monday Blues
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.38% at 1.142 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Despite the pre-weekend gains that lifted the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average, global equities are moving lower today. The main news over the weekend included the US renewing its threat to impose more tariffs on China...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement
There are three broad forces of movement in the week ahead: the equity market performance, political developments, and economic data. United States It was a tumultuous week for equities, and there was not clear or obvious trigger. With US bond yields and equities trending higher this year, there does not seem to a reason why it ended last week. Similarly, the recovery before the weekend, which lifted the S&P 500...
Read More »FX Daily, October 12: Market Fever is Burning Itself Out Ahead of the Weekend
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% at 1.145 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equity markets are stabilizing today as Asian and European markets shrug off the failure to get traction in the US yesterday. As everything and nothing was behind the dramatic sell-off in recent days, the same could be said about today’s...
Read More »FX Daily, October 11: Equity Swoon Takes Spotlight, Pushes Dollar to Backfoot
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% at 1.1429 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: There is one story today, and that is the sell-off in global equities. Although the narratives put the US at the center, the fact of the matter is that US equities have been among the best performers this year, despite the rise of...
Read More »Macro Cheat Sheet
Here is a succinct four-bullet summary of key considerations behind five currencies: USD Rising US rates in absolute terms and relative to other countries, coupled with the policy-mix and US tax reform are the main drivers. The market has nearly completely discounted three more Fed hikes by the end of next year, while the Fed has signaled that four hikes may be appropriate. Despite the fiscal stimulus and robust...
Read More »FX Daily, October 10: US Dollar Pullback may Continue in North America
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.19% at 1.1416 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates US Dollar: The euro bottomed yesterday near $1.1430 and reached $1.1515 in Asia. Support is seen near $1.1480 and should hold if the euro’s upside correction is to continue. There are options struck $1.1500-$1.1510 for nearly 1.4 bln euros...
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