Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

Overview:  The dollar is offered. Neither the 227k rise in nonfarm payrolls, nor the above 3% Q4 growth that the Atlanta Fed sees the economy tracking, or the uptick in November CPI expected to be reported on Wednesday has been sufficient to dampen speculation of a rate cut next week. The futures market has a nearly 88% chance discounted. The antipodean currencies and Scandis are leading the move, ostensibly encouraged by the pro-growth signals from China's...

The US dollar advanced against all the G10 currencies last week but the Swiss franc but turned in a most mixed performance against emerging market currencies. The US 10-year yield fell for the third consecutive week and near 4.16%, it is around a dozen basis points below where it settled the night before the US election. The two-year yield fell for the second consecutive week and settled near 4.10% is about half a dozen basis points below the pre-election day level....

Overview:  The dollar is mixed on what will start critical second half of the week. France holds its confidence vote in a few hours. Fed Chair speaks at a moderated discussion at the New York Times around 1:40 ET. The US data focus shifts to the labor market with the ADP estimate today and the nonfarm payroll report on Friday. The head of the main opposition party in Japan stepped down ostensibly until March due to a personal scandal and this has dampened...

Overview: The US dollar has extended the losses scored late yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated he was still leaning toward a December rate cut. The odds of a rate cut rose to around 76% from about 66% at the end of last week. The odds are slightly lower today, around 72%. A solid jobs report on Friday and another uptick in CPI may change some minds. The only G10 currency that is weaker today is the Japanese yen, and it is off about 0.25%....

Overview: The US dollar is beginning the new week and month on a firm note. It is rising against all the G10 currencies and nearly all the emerging market currencies. US-President-elect Trump's threat to BRICS if they abandon the dollar is symbolic than substantive, as we have argued, despite the occasional claim to the contrary, a BRICS currency is not realistic, and the China has little interest in fostering another competitor to the yuan. Still, like being told...

The trends were already entrenched before the US election and continued through most of last month. The trend toward higher rates and higher equities stalled, while the dollar remained strong. Investors and business continue to wrestle with the implications of the Republican sweep in the US elections.There are two broad issues that are the source of uncertainty. The first is the broad tariff Trump has advocated on the campaign trail: 60% on China and 10-20% on rest...

Overview: The US dollar has a softer profile today. All the G10 currencies are higher, led by 1%+ surge in the yen amid heightened speculation of a rate hike next month, while the US 10-year yield is near 4.25% today, the lowest since the election. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand allows for another half-point cut after delivering the second one this year earlier today, the New Zealand dollar has popped up amid sell the rumor buy the fact type of activity....

Overview: As some market pundits were debating about a possible grand deal between the US and China. In exchange for a lighter tariff regime, Beijing would accept yuan appreciation. As far-fetched as such scenario may be, it was predicated on ideas that people like the Bessent, the Treasury Secretary-nominee, was pragmatic. Trump's comments hit in early Asia Pacific turnover specifically cited a 25% tariff on all product from Canada and Mexico and 10% more on China...

Overview: The selection of Scott Bessent, the hedge fund manager as next US Treasury Secretary was greeted euphorically in the capital markets:  one of their own and, arguably, like many of new economics team could have been picked in any Republican administration. Risk appetites have been animated. Still, we suspect market positioning may have led to an exaggerated response. The dollar has been sold. Stocks have bought. The euro is leading the G10 currencies...

Overview:  Escalating tensions in Europe and comments from Bank of Japan Ueda that spurred speculation of a December hike are the main drivers of the foreign exchange market today. The yen is the strongest of the G10 currencies, up about 0.65%, while the euro is the weakest, off a little more than 0.25%, and sterling is down almost as much. Most of the other G10 currencies are little changed. Led by central European currencies, most emerging market currencies are...