Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

The two sides have agreed to discuss lowering barriers to transatlantic trade, helping to de-escalate tensions. While positive, the US’s dispute with China still needs watching. US President Trump and EU Commission President Juncker this week struck an unexpected deal to de-escalate the trade dispute between the EU and the US. Importantly, Trump agreed to put his threat of tariffs on EU cars on hold as bilateral trade...

Today’s Governing Council meeting did little to break the seasonal torpor. We continue to expect its first rate hike to come in September 2019. There was no change in interest rates or forward guidance at today’s ECB Governing Council meeting. The Governing Council reaffirmed that bond purchases will end in December and that key interest rates are expected to remain at their present levels “at least through the summer...

Rising bank credit flows confirm that domestic fundamentals remain solid across most of the euro area. The ECB’s M3 and credit report for June just published confirms that lending dynamics continue to be in a good shape in the euro area, boding well for private investment. Bank credit flows to non-financial corporations (adjusted for seasonal effects and securitisations) amounted to €10bn in June, down from €25bn in...

Fundamentals remain solid but the decline in some forward-looking indicators in July signal downside risk in the coming months. Markit’s euro area flash PMI surveys for July came in on the soft side. The composite PMI for the euro area fell to 54.3 in July from 54.9 in June, below consensus expectations. At the sector level, the manufacturing PMI index rose marginally, putting a halt to six consecutive months of...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Risk assets have disappointed this year and global equities were trendless, but as long as fundamentals can re-assert themselves, there could still be some life in risk markets. Global equities were trendless and the overall performance of risk assets lacklustre in the first half of 2018. But while trade tensions have been causing jitters and could continue to do so in the short term, as long as fundamentals are able...

Short-term rebound in the UK, driven by services. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published this week a new rolling monthly estimate of UK GDP. The release pointed to a rebound of growth in Q2 (quarterly data will be published on August 8). According to the ONS, the rolling three-month growth to end-May was 0.2%, compared to 0% in the three months to end-April (see chart below). Looking at the details, the...

R & D expenses of the Confederation at record high 12 July 2018 (FSO) – In 2017, the Confederation spent 2.2 billion Swiss francs on research and experimental development (R & D), an increase of 7% compared to the last survey in 2015. The biggest share of this record amount was R & D contributions for research activities. At the same time, federal R & D personnel fell by 4% to 875 full-time...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered unemployment in June 2018 – According to SECO surveys, at the end of June 2018, 106,579 unemployed were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 2,813 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 2.4% in the month under review. Compared with the same month last year, unemployment fell by 27,024 people (-20.2%). Switzerland...

Overall, June saw a halt to recent declines in euro area business sentiment survey. The final reading for the euro area composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.1 in May to 54.9 in June, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 54.8. However, the manufacturing PMI fell further, to an 18-month low of 54.9, due to weakness in France and Germany. Growth remains decent in the sector but, as Markit...