Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

01.03.2021 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.9% in nominal terms in January 2021 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 4.9% compared with the previous month. The economic sectors were affected to varying degrees. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.5% in January...

26.02.2021 – In the 4th quarter 2020, the total employment (number of jobs) fell by 0.4% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.1% with previous quarter). Among women, the decrease was 0.6%, while employment among men fell by 0.3%. In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period declined also by 0.4%. The Swiss economy counted 12 600 fewer vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (-16.1%) with the employment outlook...

Switzerland’s GDP growth slowed to 0.3 % in the 4th quarter after reaching 7.6 % in the 3rd quarter.  Major losses were recorded in the services directly affected by the tightening of the containment measures. Other industries continued to recover. On the whole, the second wave of the coronavirus until the end of 2020 had much less of an impact on the economy than the first wave did last spring. Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q4 2020(see more posts on...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...

19.02.2021 – Secondary sector production declined 3.1% in 4th quarter 2020 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover fell by 4.4%. For 2020 as a whole which was shaped by the Covid 19 pandemic, there were strong decreases in production (-3.3%) and turnover (-5.2%). The last time such losses were observed in production figures was in 2009, a year affected by the financial crisis. This is shown by provisional results from the Federal Statistical...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

16.02.2021 – The Swiss residential property price index (IMPI) increased in the 4th quarter 2020 compared with the previous quarter by 2.3% and reached 103.1 points (4th quarter 2019 = 100). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, inflation was 3.1%. The average annual inflation rate for residential property in 2020 was 2.5%. These are some the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The average annual inflation rate of the IMPI for 2020 of...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered unemployment in January 2021 – According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 169,753 unemployed people were registered with the regional employment centers (RAV) at the end of January 2021, 6,208 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% in December 2020 to 3.7% in the reporting month. Compared to the same month last year, unemployment increased by 48,735...

01.02.2021 – Retail trade turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays showed nominal growth of 3.5% in December 2020 compared with the same month of the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover grew by 2.2% compared with the previous month. Despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the whole of 2020, provisional results show nominal growth of 0.1%. This positive growth consists of contrasting developments in the sectors with some strong turnover...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...