Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

01.02.2021 – Retail trade turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays showed nominal growth of 3.5% in December 2020 compared with the same month of the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover grew by 2.2% compared with the previous month. Despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the whole of 2020, provisional results show nominal growth of 0.1%. This positive growth consists of contrasting developments in the sectors with some strong turnover...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...

07.01.2021 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 1.0% in nominal terms in November 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 2.4% compared with the previous month. These are the provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 1.7% in November 2020 compared with the previous year. Real growth...

17.12.2020 – The construction price index recorded a decline of 0.2% between April and October 2020, reaching 99.7 points (October 2015 = 100). This result reflects a decline in building prices and a slight growth in civil engineering prices. Year on year, construction prices remained stable. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Development of the construction price index in Switzerland, October 2020 - Click to enlarge...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...

02.12.2020 – The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in November 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.0 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The 0.2% decrease compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for international package holidays. Hotel accommodation also recorded a...

Switzerland’s GDP grew by 7.2 % in the 3rd quarter of 2020,  after decreasing by a total of 8.6 % in the first half of the year. Domestic demand and parts of the service sector recovered significantly, while international developments had an adverse impact on exports. Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q3 2020(see more posts on Switzerland Gross Domestic Product, ) Source: investing.com - Click to enlarge In the 3rd quarter, Switzerland’s GDP grew...

26.11.2020 – From 2021, the price indices published by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) will be armed with an updated methodology that reflects market changes as closely as possible. Furthermore, a new price index will be added to the existing set, measuring residential property price change, which will be published on a quarterly basis. These economic indicators are very important, both for economic and monetary policy and for the indexation of monetary values...