Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

Macroeconomy The upsurge in covid-19 cases will likely hurt global economic prospects in the current quarter. With a Democrat ‘blue wave’ failing materialise in the US elections, hopes of a substantial spending bill have faded and there is risk that US household incomes suffer as existing support measures fade. In the meantime, covid-19 infections continue surge in the US. The Chinese recovery continues, supported by strong exports and solid improvement in fixed...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered unemployment in October 2020 – According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 149,118 unemployed people were registered with the regional employment centers (RAV) at the end of October 2020, 558 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.2% in the month under review. Compared to the same month last year, unemployment increased by 47,434 people (+ 46.6%)....

Consumer sentiment in Switzerland has largely been stagnating since the summer. All sub-indices used for the calculation are still below their long-term average and none have improved significantly compared to this summer’s survey. Economic development and the situation on the labour market are seen as unfavourable. As of October, the consumer sentiment index stands at –13 points, almost at the same level as in July (–12 points). The sentiment remains gloomy,...

03.11.2020 – The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in October 2020 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.6% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The stability of the index compared with the previous month is the result of opposing trends that counterbalanced each other overall. Prices for clothing and footwear increased,...

30.10.2020 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.3% in nominal terms in September 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 3.6% compared with the previous month. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.3% in September 2020 compared with the previous year. Real growth...

Signs from last week’s SURE programme to finance partial unemployment schemes are highly encouraging for the EU’s plans for recovery fund issuance which could start, we believe, in mid-2021. Last week’s SURE issue was close to 14 times oversubscribed at a rate lower than that for French government bonds of comparable duration. We believe this sale marks the arrival of a major new sustainable asset that benefits from the highest rating. An increase in ECB bond...

22.10.2020 – The United Nations World Data Forum took place from 19 to 21 October 2020 in digital format due to COVID-19. The event brought together several thousand experts to find innovative solutions in order to meet the need for better quality data to implement the 2030 Agenda and to control the pandemic. Every two years, the United Nations World Data Forum (UNWDF) brings together participants from various regions, countries and data communities, covering the...

22.10.2020 – In Switzerland, 19.2% of people who pursued a professional activity left their job between 2018 and 2019. Mobility is particularly strong among young people, people with a fixed-term contract or working in the hotel and restaurant sector. A change of job led to a higher work-time percentage for 1 in 5 people and a wage increase for 1 full-time employee in 3. These are some of the results from the “Occupational mobility in Switzerland 2019” publication...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...