Tag Archives: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Last week’s 50 bps Fed rate hike was not a surprise. Indeed, Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that a 75 bps hike had not been actively considered was enough to spark a stock rally. But it proved short-lived, with markets quickly returning to their fears about inflation. With the US labour market remaining tight and with inflation running well ahead of wage growth (the consumer price index rose an annual 8.5% in March, a four-decades high, compared with a 5.5%...

. US prices continue to rise, with the US consumer price index (CPI) for October coming in at its highest in three decades. President Biden made a boldly worded response as inflation becomes a growing focus among politicians with their eyes fixed on next year’s midterm elections. Oil prices fell on investors’ expectations that the US could free up strategic reserves to combat energy inflation. At the same time, bond yields rose on the back of the CPI release, but the...

Last week, the US GDP growth figure for Q3 came in lower than expected, while prices moved higher than anticipated and the US Employment Cost Index update rose at its fastest pace in 31 years. The headline increase was driven by the biggest surge in wages since 1982, up 1.5% in the third quarter. Substantial productivity gains would be required now to offset this rise in wages. Without gains in productivity and/or a fall in labour costs, there could be a risk to...

After September’s negative performance, last week proved one of the strongest in a while for equity markets. This rebound followed news that the Biden administration will start to tackle the supply-chain and logistics issues that have been preventing deliveries. The ports of Los Angeles, the busiest in the US, will begin operating around the clock seven days per week to ease cargo bottlenecks that have led to shortages and higher costs for consumers. Showing some...

China’s high-yield bond crisis continued last week, with yields on the ICE BofA index of Chinese high-yield US dollar bonds moving above 18% at one stage last week, the highest level in a decade. Further nervousness was caused by one real-estate issuer’s decision not to reimburse USD200 mn of offshore bonds–despite having USD4 bn in cash on its balance sheet. This suggests the company in question favours domestic investors and its own cash needs over its offshore...

ASSET ALLOCATION We maintain our tactically neutral position on equities, with the notable exception of Japan, where we see scope for a re-start to Abenomics and for Japanese stocks to continue to close their performance gap with their peers in other developed markets. Though recourse to options trades, we are prepared for an increase in volatility as markets adjust to slowing growth momentum. While they may consolidate in the short term, we remain broadly optimistic...

As expected, last week the European Central Bank hinted at a “moderate” reduction of the bond buying it undertakes as part of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). But ECB president Christine Lagarde refrained from providing a precise timeline and she was adamant that a reduction in PEPP purchases did not mean the ECB would tighten financing conditions. Indeed, the ECB could well compensate smaller PEPP purchases by beefing up its regular asset...

The rosy US employment picture helped push equities to a new high as US inflation moderated in July. Those looking to fill roles now exceed those looking for work, compelling some small and mid-sized companies to raise wages. Higher prices seem to be keeping the US consumer in check, however, with consumer sentiment hitting its lowest level in a decade. We will be watching how this evolves given the US consumer’s key to the growth recovery story. The US earnings...

Big US banks released their 2Q earnings last week. The figures were good thanks to robust growth in investment-banking income as well as a drop in loan-loss provisions. But banks also reported that wage costs were beginning to rise, and while a booming housing market has boosted mortgage-loan business, the renewed retreat in long-term yields has been a drag on interest income. In the main, however, the message from US banks is that business is good as a strong...

M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity is on the rise, as companies coming out of the pandemic with strong balance sheets shop for buying opportunities. Last week ACS, a Spanish construction group, approached Italian transport company Atlantia to buy Italy’s largest motorway network. Two big funds are also eyeing Dutch telecommunications company KPN as a potential acquisition target. M&A is one of our 2021 investment themes and we like event-driven hedge...