Tag Archives: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Asset Allocation We believe that robust earnings growth will overcome concerns about rate increases. Within a neutral position on developed-market equities, we believe sectoral rotation will continue and we remain overweight cyclical markets like the UK and Japan. But while we believe the attractiveness of stocks subject to wild valuation swings will fade, we continue to like cash-rich ‘structural grower’ stocks. The rise in the correlation between bonds and equities...

Macroeconomy The upsurge in covid-19 cases will likely hurt global economic prospects in the current quarter. With a Democrat ‘blue wave’ failing materialise in the US elections, hopes of a substantial spending bill have faded and there is risk that US household incomes suffer as existing support measures fade. In the meantime, covid-19 infections continue surge in the US. The Chinese recovery continues, supported by strong exports and solid improvement in fixed...

Signs from last week’s SURE programme to finance partial unemployment schemes are highly encouraging for the EU’s plans for recovery fund issuance which could start, we believe, in mid-2021. Last week’s SURE issue was close to 14 times oversubscribed at a rate lower than that for French government bonds of comparable duration. We believe this sale marks the arrival of a major new sustainable asset that benefits from the highest rating. An increase in ECB bond...

Donald Trump’s poll numbers were looking increasingly unhealthy at the time of writing, but at least the cocktail of drugs administered to the coronavirus-stricken President appears to have worked. This is encouraging news in the fight against the virus and a considerable achievement for Regeneron, whose founders increased their stake in the company after a French pharma group pulled back earlier this year. At this point, markets are increasingly taking on board...

Asset Allocation Rising coronavirus cases accompanied by flagging recovery momentum and a fractious run-up to the US elections make prospects for equities highly reliant on 3Q results and further policy stimulus. Against this background we have downgraded our stance on euro area equities from neutral to underweight, following a similar downgrade for US equities in August. We continue to like structural growth drivers and select, high-quality cyclical stocks. We...

The impact of political tensions on business is ever more apparent: LVMH of France will not, after all, proceed with the purchase of Tiffany of the US. If, as seems likely, the hand of the French government was involved, this is solid evidence that political sensitivities are increasingly influencing cross-border deals – something that is likely to remain the case just as M&A in general has been declining. Volatility is on the rise across most assets,...

Macroeconomy A surge in new covid-19 cases in a number of countries has interrupted progress towards normality, yet the effects of the virus are becoming more manageable and positive world H2 growth is achievable. Prospects for the US economy hinge on the ability of Washington to agree a new fiscal support package. While we have raised out 2020 GDP projection for the US we remain prudent. We expect the Fed to provide more stimulus via increased asset purchases,...

The sell-off in stocks last week showed a certain nervousness about the sharp run-up in tech stocks and the role of big option bets. Indeed, prices in some instances had risen too fast. But this was a technical correction. With the US tech titans generating free cash flow, we do not believe we are facing a repeat of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000.  And yet, it could be that Tesla’s ambition to raise USD5bn through occasional share sales will be seen as...

In spite of renewed fears of coronavirus clusters in Beijing, data last week suggested the more consumer-oriented sides of the Chinese economy were tracking improvements in industry, with a year-on-year increase in auto sales in May. UK retail sales were also encouraging, but the biggest surprise came from the US where May’s 18% rise in retail sales month on month was double analysts’ expectations. Popular metrics like pedestrian, air and auto traffic, credit card...

[embedded content] The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...