by George Dorgan
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This week we focus on the charts, we omit the technical explanations, given that Marc Chandler is currently on a two-weeks trip. The dollar was surprisingly strong this week. This despite a more hawkish ECB, bad U.S. economic data in the ISM surveys. Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index had a bad week with a bad Friday. The dollar index rose at the end. Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, )Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M, Click to enlarge. Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket) On a three years interval, the Swiss Franc had a weak performance. The dollar index was far stronger. The dollar makes up 33% of the SNB portfolio and 25% of Swiss exports (incl. countries like China or Arab countries that use the dollar for exchanges). Contrary to popular believe, the CHF index gained only 1.73% in 2015. It lost 9.52% in 2014., when the dollar (and yuan) strongly improved. Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 3Y(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, )Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 3Y. Click to enlarge. USD/CHF The dollar has reached 0.
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George Dorgan considers the following as important: Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil, EUR/CHF, Euro, Euro Dollar, Featured, FX Trends, Japanese Yen, MACDs, newsletter, S&P 500 Index, Swiss Franc Index, U.S. Treasuries, US Dollar Index, USD/CHF, USDJPY
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This week we focus on the charts, we omit the technical explanations, given that Marc Chandler is currently on a two-weeks trip. The dollar was surprisingly strong this week. This despite a more hawkish ECB, bad U.S. economic data in the ISM surveys.
Swiss Franc Currency IndexThe Swiss Franc index had a bad week with a bad Friday. The dollar index rose at the end. |
Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M, Click to enlarge. |
Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years)The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket)On a three years interval, the Swiss Franc had a weak performance. The dollar index was far stronger. The dollar makes up 33% of the SNB portfolio and 25% of Swiss exports (incl. countries like China or Arab countries that use the dollar for exchanges). Contrary to popular believe, the CHF index gained only 1.73% in 2015. It lost 9.52% in 2014., when the dollar (and yuan) strongly improved. |
Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 3Y(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 3Y. Click to enlarge. |
USD/CHF
The dollar has reached 0.98 CHF again, but did not touch the highs of the month. |
US Dollar - Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate(see more posts on USD/CHF, ) US Dollar – Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate – click to enlarge. |
US Dollar IndexThe dollar index managed to achieve its highest point in the last month. |
US Dollar Currency Index Dollar Index(see more posts on Dollar Index, ) US Dollar Currency Index Dollar Index – click to enlarge. |
EUR/USDThe weakness of the euro is very astonishing. The EUR/USD has fallen: |
Euro/US Dollar FX Spot Rate(see more posts on Euro Dollar, ) Euro/US Dollar FX Spot Rate – click to enlarge. |
USD/JPYThe yen remains surprisingly strong. The major reason for us, is that 10 U.S. yields are only around 1.65%. This is insufficiently low to convince, Japanese pension funds to add more U.S. treasury exposure. As opposed to the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Japan does not dare to do FX interventions. |
US Dollar Japanese Yen FX Spot Rate(see more posts on USDJPY, ) US Dollar Japanese Yen FX Spot Rate – click to enlarge. |
GBP/USD
The BOE has provided low rate loans to banks, cut interest rates, resumed asset purchases (both Gilts and corporate bonds). Most of the economic data in recent weeks has been reported above expectations. There is no compelling reason to expect the BOE to take additional measures now. It will likely keep the door open to additional action when or if needed. |
UK Pound Sterling / US Dollar FX Spot Rate(see more posts on British Pound, ) UK Pound Sterling / US Dollar FX Spot Rate – click to enlarge. |
AUD/USDAfter a short-lived recovery in August, the Aussie has dived again under the 0.75 level. |
Australian Dollar / US Dollar FX Spot Rate(see more posts on Australian Dollar, ) Australian Dollar / US Dollar FX Spot Rate – click to enlarge. |
USD/CADWith falling oil prices (see below), the dollar has gained again. |
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar FX Spot Rate(see more posts on Canadian Dollar, ) US Dollar / Canadian Dollar FX Spot Rate – click to enlarge. |
Crude Oil
Crude Oil was under pressure this week. The IEA forecast that the surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought. The surplus is seen persisting into late 2017, as demand slumps and supply rises. It noted that demand in China and India are “wobbling” while record output from OPEC’s Gulf members is adding to the glut. Previously, the IEA had looked for a balanced global oil market this year. |
Crude Oil(see more posts on Crude Oil, ) Crude Oil – click to enlarge. |
U.S. TreasuriesThey yields U.S. Treasuries slowly climb up from the lows seen after Brexit. |
Yield US Treasuries 10 years(see more posts on U.S. Treasuries, ) Yield US Treasuries 10 years – click to enlarge. |
S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 has reached the lowest level of this month. It got dragged down by the energy sector. Oil prices of 40$ are probably too low for many companies. |
S&P 500 INDEX(see more posts on S&P 500 Index, ) S&P 500 INDEX – click to enlarge. |
Charts and CHF data added by George Dorgan and the snbchf team