Crude oil prices rose over 25% last week and as I sit down to write this evening the overnight futures are up another 8% to around $125. Almost every other commodity on the planet rose in prices last week too, as did the dollar. Those two factors – rising dollar and rising commodity prices – mean the likelihood of recession in the coming year has risen significantly in just the last week. Rising oil prices, in particular, have been a regular feature of past...
Read More »Cash Holdings Have Become Less Cyclical
On his blog, JP Koning reports that [b]oth the Christmas bump and the sawtooth pattern arising from monthly payrolls are less noticeable than previous years. But these patterns remain more apparent for Canadian dollars than U.S. dollars. Not because Canadians like cash more than Americans. We don’t, and are probably further along the path towards digital payments then they are. Rather, the percentage of U.S. dollars held overseas is much larger than Canadian dollars, so domestic usage of...
Read More »Cash Holdings Have Become Less Cyclical
On his blog, JP Koning reports that [b]oth the Christmas bump and the sawtooth pattern arising from monthly payrolls are less noticeable than previous years. But these patterns remain more apparent for Canadian dollars than U.S. dollars. Not because Canadians like cash more than Americans. We don’t, and are probably further along the path towards digital payments then they are. Rather, the percentage of U.S. dollars held overseas is much larger than Canadian dollars, so domestic usage of...
Read More »Gold’s Price Performance: Beyond the US Dollar
With the first half of 2018 now drawn to a close, much of the financial medias’ headlines and commentary relating to the gold market has been focusing on the fact that the US dollar gold price has moved lower year-to-date. Specifically, from a US dollar price of $1302.50 at close on 31 December 2017, the price of gold in US dollar terms has slipped by approximately 3.8% over the last six months to around $1252.50, a...
Read More »Weekly Technical Analysis: 04/06/2018 – USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI
USD/CHF The USDCHF pair managed to break 0.9850 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview efficiently in the upcoming period, paving the way to head towards 0.9723 level as a next station, noting that the EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid for today conditioned by the price stability below 0.9870. Expected trading range for today...
Read More »Weekly Technical Analysis: 21/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF
USD/CHF The USDCHF pair reaches the key support 0.9955 now, and as we mentioned in our last report, breaking this level will confirm completing the double top pattern that appears on the chart, to rally towards our negative targets that begin at 0.9900 and extend to 0.9850. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, unless the price managed to rally...
Read More »Weekly Technical Analysis: 14/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
USD/CHF The USDCHF pair provided positive trading yesterday to test 1.0000 level and settles around it, and as long as the price is below this level, our bearish overview will remain valid, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while breaching 1.0000 followed by 1.0055 levels represent the key to regain the main bullish trend again. Expected trading range for today is between 0.9920 support and 1.0055...
Read More »Weekly Technical Analysis: 07/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold
USD/CHF The USDCHF pair’s recent trades are confined within mew minor bearish channel that we believe it forms bullish flag pattern, thus, the price needs to breach 1.0035 to activate the positive effect of this pattern followed by rallying towards our waited target at 1.0100. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, unless we witnessed clear break and hold below 1.0000. Expected...
Read More »Weekly Technical Analysis: 23/04/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI oil futures
USD/CHF The USDCHF pair touched the bullish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, and the price might be forced to show some temporary decline to test the support base formed above 0.9790 before resuming the rise again. In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, depending on the organized trading inside the mentioned bullish channel, noting that our next target is...
Read More »Weekly Technical Analysis: 16/04/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF
USD/CHF The USDCHF pair breached 0.9675 level and closed the daily candlestick above it, to open the way to achieve more rise in the upcoming sessions, paving the way to head towards 0.9790 as a next main station. Therefore, the bullish trend will be suggested, supported by the EMA50, noting that breaking 0.9675 and holding below it will push the price to test 0.9581 level before determining the next trend clearly....
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