SNB & CHF

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month. Growth and inflation expectations rose somewhat since last month’s update. The change is minor though and within the range of what we’ve seen in recent months. The most significant change from last month is the continued...

Swiss unemployment services have been dealing with more and more older people. - Click to enlarge Switzerland is facing a medium-term future of labour market shortages and ratcheting pension costs, according to the latest economic outlook report by UBS bank. The quarterly appraisal,external link launched Thursday in Zurich, highlighted a paradox in the current shape of the Swiss labour market. Firstly, more and more...

The Organisation of the Swiss Abroad (OSA) has reacted angrily to the recent remarks of a politician that questioned the role of expat pensioners. An apology: this is what the OSAexternal link have demanded of Petra Gössi, the Radical Party politician whose “unacceptable” remarks about the pensions of Swiss abroad provoked a flurry of reaction last month. The letter was sent by the OSA to Petra Gössi (right) - Click to...

Flowing Toward the Great Depression All remaining doubts concerning the place the U.S. economy and its tangled web of international credits and debts is headed were clarified this week. On Monday, Mark Yusko, CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, told CNBC that: “…we’re flowing toward the path of 1928-29 when Hoover was president. Now Trump is president. Both were presidents with no experience who come in with a...

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Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.1028 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, July 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates After falling to new lows for the year against several major currencies in response to disappointing retail sales and uninspiring CPI before the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a more stable note. It is firmer against nearly all the major...

The majority of the economic reports over the last two weeks have been disappointing, less than the consensus expectations. The minor rebound in activity we’ve been tracking since last summer appears to have stalled. Retail sales continue to disappoint and inventory/sales ratios are once again rising – from already elevated levels. Even the positive reports were clouded by negative undertones. So far though our market...

The Economist magazine’s 6-monthly Big Mac index shows the Swiss franc to be even more overvalued than it was in January 2017. The index, which compares the US$ price of a Big Mac around the world places Switzerland at the top with a price of US$ 6.74. This is 27.2% more expensive than the United States where the same burger costs US$ 5.30. In January 2017, the same burger in Switzerland cost US$ 6.35 and US$ 5.06 in...

Bitcoins have taken a step towards acceptance by the Swiss banking community - Click to enlarge Swiss private bank Falcon has become the first mainstream wealth manager in the country to allow clients to invest bitcoins in their portfolios. The Zurich-based bank has been given the green light to accept the cryptocurrency by the Swiss financial regulator. Falcon has teamed up with cryptocurrency brokerage Bitcoin...

FX The EUR/CHF remained over 1.10 in the last week, thanks to hawkish comments from ECB president Draghi. Headlines Week July 17, 2017 On June 27, Draghi told the audience at the annual ECB Forum that transitory factors were holding back inflation. This has boosted the euro against both USD and CHF. Our opinion, however, is that this “transition” is very long, possibly comparable to the Japanese deflation/...