SNB & CHF

While the recent economic ‘soft patch’ has hurt all the main euro area economies, some have been more affected more than others. A divergence in fortunes can be seen across asset classes. The four biggest euro area economies slowed in H1 2018 due to a number of factors, including weak exports. We expect a rebound in H2—except in Italy, where political uncertainty has been denting business confidence. Forward indicators...

It is a highly complex process to get oil from the ground and into cars. (Copyright 2018 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.) A consortium of commodities traders, banks and the world’s largest goods inspection company have joined forces to launch a blockchain platform in Switzerland, which is intended to ease the administrative burden of shifting oil, grain and other products around the world. The Komgo venture...

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank hält die Schleusen im Kampf gegen die Frankenstärke weiterhin offen. Dies macht die Zentralbank indes zunehmend anfällig für politische Einflussnahme und Begehrlichkeiten. Als Carl Barks nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg die Comicfigur Dagobert Duck erschuf, dachte er kaum an die Schweiz. Das Bild vom alten Knaben, der nur dann wirklich glücklich ist, wenn er ein Bad in seinen Golddukaten nehmen...

Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy,  thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange ...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Clariant has sealed a restructuring deal with its new large shareholder. Swiss specialty chemical maker Clariant has signed a memorandum of understanding to enter into a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabian firm SABIC. This will result in a major restructuring of the company along with changes in management and the board of directors. On Tuesday, Clariant said the collaboration will see the merger of units from both...

This has already been one of the longest economic expansions on record for the US and there is little in the data or markets to indicate that is about to come to an end. Current levels of the yield curve are comparable to late 2005 in the last cycle. It was almost two years later before we even had an inkling of a problem and even in the summer of 2008 – nearly three years later – there was still a robust debate about...

That changes our perspective on the wonderfulness of ever-expanding household wealth. The assets of U.S. households recently topped $100 trillion, yet another sign that everything is going swimmingly in the U.S. economy. Let’s take a look at the Federal Reserve’s Household Balance Sheet, which lists the assets and liabilities of all U.S. households in very big buckets (real estate: $25 trillion). (For reasons unknown,...

Silver is ‘undervalued’ relative to stocks, bonds and gold: GoldCore Silver at $14/oz is cheap relative to gold with gold-silver ratio over 85 Silver drops to 32-month lows prompting sellout of Silver Eagle coins at U.S. Mint U.S. Mint said “recent increased demand” prompted a “temporary sell out” of its American Silver Eagle bullion coins as investors see silver coins as a bargain “We believe that we are on the verge...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.46% at 1.1303 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar initially extended its gains against the yen, reaching JPY112.45 before some profit-taking was seen. There is a $1.7 bln option at JPY112 that expires today. It looks safe today after yesterday’s big outside up session-where the...