Perspectives Pictet

The ECB has hinted it intends to remain flexible when it comes to the composition of future asset purchases, with a chance that corporate bonds will play a bigger role.Arguably, the most important aspect of last week’s ECB quantitative easing (QE) announcement was that the programme will remain open-ended. As we have long suggested, the pledge to extend asset purchases beyond September 2018 can only be credible if there are enough German Bunds for the ECB to buy. Bund scarcity could be...

Published: Monday October 30 2017Ivan Lansberg and Wendy Ulaszek say that in addition to running the company, an integral part of a successful family enterprise leader’s job is tending to the needs of the family which owns the businesses, whether or notthey are a family memberDuring a recent meeting with the chief executive of a large family-owned European company, we were discussing his succession plan when he stepped aside to take a call. It was from the daughter of a family shareholder on...

US GDP growth in the third quarter was good, and momentum may be firmer than we expected. There are upside risks to our 2018 growth forecast.US GDP grew 3.0% q-o-q SAAR in Q3 2018, pushing up the y-o-y print to 2.3%. In a word, the US economy is doing fine, although it still lacks sparkle. The impact of August hurricanes was barely perceptible. IT investment was particularly solid, rising 8.6% y-o-y, and consumer spending growth was tepid (up 2.6% y-o-y), with some softness in...

Leading indicators point to an acceleration in already strong job creation in the quarters ahead.Recent economic crises took a heavy toll on the employment level in the euro area, with almost five years of uninterrupted employment losses. Between its pre-crisis peak in the first quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2013, euro area employment levels fell by 3.6%, or more than 5.5 million.However, since hitting a low point in the second quarter of 2013, euro area employment has shown...

Published: Friday October 27 2017Kyongchol (Richard) Kim, Managing Director of a Singapore-based single family office (SFO), describes how he came into his current role, what the investment strategy is, and the advice he would give to anyone thinking of setting up a family office.After working for a government-owned finan­cial institution in South Korea, Kim recognised that his country’s bond and equity markets were too small for its fast-growing pension funds and insurance companies. Buoyed...

The ECB’s announcement on bond purchases leads us to expect its QE programme to end by Q1 2019, with a hike of the main refi rate in September that year.The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decisions today were in line with our and consensus expectations, including a slower pace of asset purchases (rescaled from EUR60bn to EUR30bn per month), a longer and open-ended extension (until September 2018, or beyond if necessary), and stronger forward guidance (committing to keeping policy rates at...

Published: Thursday October 26 2017Real Estate expert and founder of Mack Real Estate Group Richard Mack tells Pictet’s Laurent Gabert about his latest venturesAlthough Mack Real Estate is a newcomer, you have been a leading investor in this field for decades. Could you describe your latest venture?In 2013, after selling the real estate private equity business AREA – formerly known as Apollo Real Estate Advisors – our family’s aspiration was for a new firm that would think like a family...

There are no obvious candidates to succeed Xi Jinping when he completes his second term as general secretary of the Chinese communist party in 2022.The Central Committee of the Chinese communist party convened for the first time on 25 October to elect the new Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC). Unsurprisingly, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang were both re-elected as members of the PSC, and Xi was reappointed general secretary of the Party. The other five seats went to new faces to...

Prospects look bright for Switzerland next year- thanks in part to the manna received from important world sports events.According to SECO’s estimates, the Swiss economy contracted in the final quarter of 2016, while Q3 2016 and Q1 2017 figures were revised down. The downturn in SECO’s GDP figures was exacerbated by special effects related to the inclusion of sports events in the “Art, entertainment, recreation and other services” sector. “Art, entertainment, recreation and other services”...

The rise in the US deficit may sap support for Trump’s ambitious plans to cut taxes.US fiscal year 2017, which ended on September 30, did not end on a high note. The deficit rose to 3.5% of GDP, edging up 0.3 percentage point from fiscal year 2016. This deterioration stands in stark contrast to the overall improvement in the US economy. GDP growth remains above potential, and unemployment has been on a downward trend throughout the year.What is particularly puzzling, if not worrying, is the...