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The Emerging Slump

Every now and then, the developed and emerging economies of the world find themselves in sync, growing or contracting together. This is not one of those times. In late 2015, a trend that started in 2014 accelerated, as the balance of global growth is tilting toward developed markets and away from emerging ones. Whereas Credit Suisse economists expect growth in developed economies to accelerate this year—up 1.9 percent versus 1.7 percent in 2014—they forecast slower growth in emerging ones, up...

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Calm No More: Thriving in Volatile Markets

For most of 2015, it was difficult to perturb U.S. financial markets. Despite protracted negotiations between Greece and its creditors that almost broke up the European Union and a Chinese stock market crash, equity market volatility remained remarkably subdued for most of the year. But the relative tranquility shattered on August 24, when disappointing manufacturing data out of China sparked a selloff in the Chinese stock market that spread to financial markets all over the world. Volatility...

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Does Volatility Signal The End of the Bull Market?

There’s no question that the current bull market is getting a little long in the tooth. Since 1948, bull markets have lasted an average of five years and the current run has already entered its seventh. There must be a bear lurking around here somewhere, right?   There really had been an unusually long period of calm in the U.S. stock market. Until fears about the Chinese economy sent volatility soaring and triggered a worldwide equities selloff in late August, the S&P 500 hadn’t...

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Taking Advantage of the M&A Boom

It’s been a big year for mergers and acquisitions. The combined value of worldwide transactions is on track to hit $2.6 trillion in 2015, an increase of almost 25 percent over last year’s $2.1 trillion. All signs point to the deal frenzy continuing, too. So how can a savvy investor take advantage of the increased appetite for deals? By investing with even savvier ones. Credit Suisse’s Private Banking & Wealth Management Division thinks the time is right to invest in hedge funds that...

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Time to Shift Dividend Strategies

It should surprise no one that one of the best performing investment strategies over the past 15 years has been to play defense, specifically by buying high-dividend paying stocks in sectors like consumer staples, health care, and utilities. Not only have those stocks proven less volatile than the broader market, they have drawn increasing investor interest as interest rates have remained stubbornly low. But as rates look set to increase at least in some parts of the world, Marc Häfliger,...

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Good Things Come in Small, Swiss Packages

The Swiss franc, like gold and U.S. Treasuries, is an asset investors turn to when they need a safe place to hunker down. But what about Swiss equities? While they’re no safe haven themselves, they can, like those of any other country, occasionally trade at levels that promise outsize returns. This is one of those times: Credit Suisse’s Private Banking & Wealth Management (PBWM) division thinks Swiss equities – particularly small- and mid-cap stocks – offer greater potential than global...

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US Debt Is Rising Again—But That’s a Good Thing

In the aftermath of the housing collapse, U.S. consumers did something they hadn’t done in years: they drastically reduced their debt loads. After peaking in 2008 at just over $11.5 trillion, household debt (the sum of mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, and credit card debt) was whittled down to under $10 trillion by the second quarter of 2013. But that, apparently, is when the deleveraging stopped. Over the past two years, household debt has once again been on the rise. But...

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Digging through the Rubble of the Rout

A selloff as violent as the one global equities markets experienced this past Monday can have effects that mirror a real-life earthquake. Once the earth stops moving, shell-shocked investors have to figure out what caused all the shaking and whether aftershocks are coming. They also have to determine whether anything valuable is hiding in the debris.   To the first point, it’s quite clear that trouble in China was the catalyst for the rout. It all started on Friday, August 21, when...

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