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FX Daily, January 15: Phase 1 Trade Deal Shifts Terrain of US-China Rivalry

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.18% to 1.0744 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: News that US tariffs on China will remain until through at least the November US election and continued US attempts to stymie China (e.g., more curbs on Huawei under consideration and stepped up efforts to force it to cut subsidies to business) have taken some momentum from the push...

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EUR/CHF: Franc at 33-month high five years after SNB removed the cap

EUR/CHF is trading at 33-month lows near 1.0759.  The US added Switzerland to its current manipulators’ list.  The SNB removed the cap on the euro on Jan. 15, 2015. Five years after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) shocked the financial markets by abandoning the euro cap, the Swiss Franc is trading at 33-month highs against the single currency. The EUR/CHF pair dropped to 1.0759 on Tuesday, the lowest level since April 2017 and was last seen trading at 1.0766. Tuesday’s...

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US places Switzerland on trade ‘watch list’

The US Treasury said it was also closely monitoring the interventions of the Swiss National Bank in the foreign exchange market (© Keystone / Ti-press / Alessandro Crinari) The US Treasury Department has put Switzerland back on a biannual list of countries that are under observation because of large trade surpluses with the United States. Switzerland was previously included on the Monitoring Listexternal link between October 2016 and October 2018, “having a material...

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Signatures collected for vote on tax deduction for parents

Opponents of the tax breaks say it will not benefit the middle class and would be a gift for wealthy families instead. (© Keystone / Gaetan Bally) Opponents of a proposal to increase tax deductions for parents have succeeded in collecting enough signatures to force a referendum on the subject. On Tuesday the leftwing Social Democratic Party submitted the necessary signatures required to trigger a referendum. The party is opposed to a “tax bonus for rich parents” and...

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The Many Ways Governments Create Monopolies

[From Power and Market, Chapter 3.] Instead of making the product prohibition absolute, the government may prohibit production and sale except by a certain firm or firms. These firms are then specially privileged by the government to engage in a line of production, and therefore this type of prohibition is a grant of special privilege. If the grant is to one person or firm, it is a monopoly grant; if to several persons or firms, it is a quasi-monopoly or oligopoly...

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Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the BLS asks households who in them is working whereas the more closely scrutinized Establishment...

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Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report no longer considers China a currency manipulator. The underlying message is that the Trump administration will continue to use an ad hoc “carrot and stick” approach to improve US access to the domestic markets of its major trading partners. This suggests there will still be many minor trade skirmishes this year. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS The latest...

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Will a Credit Crisis Threaten Boris’s 2020 Brexit Plans?

Boris and the Conservatives won the General Election with a very good majority. In truth, opposition parties stood little chance of success against the Tory strategists, who controlled the narrative despite a hostile media. At the centre of their slick operation was Dominic Cummings, who masterminded the Brexit leave vote, winning the referendum against all the betting in 2016. It was Cummings who arranged for the Tory Remainers to fall on their swords, which by...

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