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Tag Archives: newsletter

FX Daily, April 05: Trade Talk and German Industrial Output Lifts Sentiment

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.03% at 1.1219 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Comments by Chinese President Xi, recognizing substantial progress in trade, helped boost sentiment after the US-China negotiators failed to set a date for the meeting between the two presidents. Although we have argued that the German...

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Swiss likely to vote on capital tax reform plan

The campaigners say 99% of tax payers shoulder the burden of the wealthiest citizens in Switzerland. (© Keystone/Peter Klaunzer) The leftwing Young Socialist group has handed in the necessary signatures to force a nationwide vote on its proposal to increase tax on capital revenue in Switzerland. The initiative intends to tax dividends and interest on wealth by a factor of 1.5 compared with regular income tax. The...

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Are the Rise of Social Media and the Decline of Social Mobility Related?

Social media offers hope of achieving higher online social status without having to succeed financially in a winner-take-most economy. I’ve often addressed the decline of social mobility and the addictive nature of social media, and recently I’ve entertained the crazy notion that the two dynamics are related. Why Is Social Media So Toxic? I have long held that the decline of social mobility–broad-based opportunities to...

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Oil prices supported by OPEC+ cuts…before market risks being flooded again

Increased US export capacity would probably force OPEC+ to change its current tactics. After last year’s collapse, oil prices have found support since the beginning of this year for several reasons. At this stage, the main question is whether the recent surge in prices is sustainable or whether we will see renewed oil price volatility, with the possibility of a repeat of 2018. The recent release of the International...

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FX Daily, April 04: Limited Price Action Does not Do Justice to Macro Developments

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% at 1.1207 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets are subdued despite several macro developments. The US and China may announce as early as today when the two presidents will meet to ostensibly sign a trade deal, while House of Commons effort to block a no-deal...

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Q&A on European Parliament elections

European Parliament elections, to be held between 23 and 26 of May, will be a key political event in Europe. However, we expect limited short-term impact, given the European Parliament’s limited ability to set Brussels’ agenda. European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their...

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IMF predicts Swiss growth to slow to 1.1percent in 2019

In 2019, Swiss growth is expected to be subdued due to a combination of factors, including subdued domestic demand, a sustained regional slowdown, global trade tensions and Brexit The Swiss economy is likely to slow in 2019, with gross domestic product growth expected to hit 1.1%, followed by a “moderate” recovery in 2020, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. The IMF said in a concluding statement, published...

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Retail Sales In Bad Company, Decouple from Decoupling

In a way, the government shutdown couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment. As workers all throughout the sprawling bureaucracy were furloughed, markets had run into chaos. Even the seemingly invincible stock market was pummeled, a technical bear market emerged on Wall Street as people began to really consider increasingly loud economic risks. There had been noises overseas, troubling indications that had gone on...

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Phugoid Dollar Funding

On August 12, 1985, Japan Airways flight 123 left Tokyo’s Haneda Airport on its way to a scheduled arrival in Osaka. Twelve minutes into the flight, the aircraft, a Boeing 747, suffered catastrophic failure when an aft pressure bulkhead burst. The airplane had been improperly repaired from a tailstrike (the tail of the aircraft actually hitting the runway pavement) seven years earlier, and therefore wasn’t sufficiently...

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FX Daily, April 03: Optimism Sweeps Through the Capital Markets

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% at 1.1188 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Japan announced the name of the new era that begins May 1 and a new emperor. The connotation is of beautiful harmony. And investors have taken the bit and run with it. Optimism that the US and China near reaching an agreement on trade....

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