Tag Archives: newsletter

Some cracks have appeared in the market’s risk-on sentiment We continue to believe that recent developments take some pressure off the Fed to cut rates again this month Our base case for a Brexit delay has been strengthened; UK reported weak labor market data The situation is Turkey continues to develop negatively for asset prices; trade data out of China once again showed the impact of the trade war and the resulting global slowdown RBA minutes were released; Japan...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.0977 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world’s second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...

USD/CHF repeatedly fails to cross 0.9985/90 area. A two-month-old rising trend-line, 100-day EMA grabs sellers’ attention. Repeated failures to rise past-0.9985/90 resistance-area drags USD/CHF to 0.9965 by the press time of early Tuesday. The pair now witnesses pullback towards the two-month-old rising trend-line, at 0.9930, a break of which could further drag the quote to a 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.9910. Though, pair’s declines beneath...

Continued with its struggle to extend the momentum beyond 200-DMA. Bears eye a decisive break below the ascending trend-channel support. Bulls are likely to await a sustained strength above the key parity mark. The USD/CHF pair failed to capitalize on last week’s attempted rebound from a support marked by the lower end of a two-month-old ascending trend-channel and met with some fresh supply on Monday. The pair’s repeated failed attempts to extend the momentum...

Swiss Federal Railways is among the companies whose pre-1990s work practices are being questioned in relation to asbestos deaths. Labour unions are demanding a probe of companies’ pre-1990 working conditions in the southern Swiss canton of Ticino, in connection with recent asbestos-linked deaths. They are targeting particularly Swiss Federal Railways and the Swiss accident insurance fund SUVA. There is concern in Ticino over several recent deaths of former employees...

© Katarzyna Bialasiewicz | Dreamstime.com In Switzerland, some married couples pay more tax than unmarried ones, something referred to as the marriage tax penalty. The issue has been doing the rounds of the halls of Switzerland’s government for around 30 years. On 28 February 2016, a vote to change the current system was narrowly rejected by 50.8% of voters. Then in April 2019, the result of this referendum was reversed by the Federal Tribunal, Switzerland’s highest...

This week, we will delve into something really abstract. Not like monetary economics, which is so simple even a caveman can do it. A Clever Ruse We refer to a clever rhetorical trick. It’s when someone makes a broad and important assertion, in very general terms. But when challenged, the assertion is switched for one that is entirely uncontroversial but also narrow and unimportant. The trick is intended to foreclose debate of the broad assertion, not really to...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.0979 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a...

USD/CHF pulls back from 0.9990, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the sellers’ radar. 200-bar SMA, followed by rising multi-week-old rising trendline and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, limit further declines. Despite witnessing a downside pressure off-late, the USD/CHF pair remains well above the key supports while taking rounds to 0.9960 amid pre-European open session on Monday. While 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of August–October upside, at 0.9940, seems to please...