Tag Archives: newsletter

The broad-based dollar rally remains intact despite the market’s overly dovish take on the Fed We still believe markets are vastly overestimating the Fed’s capacity to ease in 2019 and 2020 What’s clear is that the liquidity story is not enough to sustain EM MSCI EM FX is on track to test the September 2018 low near 1575 and then the April 2017 low near 1568 Our 1-rated (strongest fundamentals) grouping for Q3 2019 consists of TWD, PHP, CNY, THB, and KRW Our...

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell to -0.36 in July. That’s down from a +0.10 in June. By itself, the change from positive to negative tells us very little, as does the absolute level below zero. What’s interesting to note about this one measure is the average but more so its rate of change. The index itself is a product of econometric research. Economists had been searching for an alternative to the unemployment rate in order to increase the...

Over its 10 years of existence, Bitcoin adoption has been just like its price—up and down. At this point in time, it’s safe to say that the adoption of our favourite cryptocurrency has never been higher. Since adoption is so high, it has never been easier to buy bitcoin (with hundreds of payment methods available on peer-to-peer marketplaces). Concrete evidence of bitcoin adoption: banks While banks used to be thought of as bitcoin’s main antagonist, they have become...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.44% to 1.0912 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Hope triumphed over realism yesterday, and realism is fighting back toward. Asia Pacific markets, however, traded on the echo from the recovery in North America on Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific recouped part of yesterday’s drop, led by Chinese markets. Hong Kong was the main...

- Click to enlarge Market sentiment has improved after President Trump said China has asked to restart trade talks PBOC fixed the yuan basically flat and firmer than what models suggested The G-7 summit wraps up today with little to show for it We believe the Chicago Fed National Activity Index remains the best indicator to gauge US recession risks Germany July IFO business climate came in weaker than expected The lira experienced a flash crash against the yen...

The world of crypto assets is forecast to explode in the coming years, moving on a long way from the cryptocurrency bitcoin. The Swiss financial regulator has awarded banking and securities dealer licences to two new “crypto banks”. SEBA and Sygnum have been cleared to operate in the new world of tokenised digital securities, a major milestone for the fledging industry. At the same time, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) issued rules on how to...

Everyone must ask himself the question. Do you want the world to move to an honest money system, or do you just want gold to go up (we italicize discussion of apparent moves in gold, because it’s the dollar that’s moving down—not gold going up—but we sometimes frame it in mainstream terms). Gold’s Going Up We have written about the tension between these two goals before. Many people start with the former. They come to gold, as they begin to realize that the dollar...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.0873 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The anticipated growth implications of the heightened tensions between the world’s two largest economies is dominating activity at the start of the new week. These considerations that drove the 2.6% drop in the S&P 500 before the weekend is carrying over into today’s...

It’s the last week of August. Several economic reports will be released in the coming days. They include the US deflator of consumer expenditures that the Federal Reserve targets, China’s PMI, and the eurozone’s preliminary August CPI. It is not that the data do not matter, but investors realize the die is cast. They are looking further afield. The next US tax increase on Chinese imports goes into effect on September 1, and Beijing has threatened to retaliate. The...

A general view of a fire in the Amazon of Rondonia, Brazil “Playing with fire,” is the verdict of the Swiss press, in reaction to the free trade deal largely agreed between EFTA countries – among them Switzerland – and the Mercosur bloc, that includes Brazil. Questions have been raised over the timing of the agreement. It comes as Brazil led by strongman president Jair Bolsonaro, faces heavy international criticism, particularly from the European Union, of its...