Tag Archives: newsletter

The yield curve’s inverted! The yield curve’s inverted! That was the news I awoke to last Wednesday on CNBC as the 10 year Treasury note yield dipped below the 2 year yield for the first time since 2007. That’s the sign everyone has been waiting for, the definitive recession signal that says get out while the getting is good. And that’s exactly what investors did all day long, the Dow ultimately surrendering 800 points on the day. I don’t remember anyone on CNBC...

Risk reversals on Swiss Franc (CHF1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts, dropped to the lowest level in 17-months, indicating the investors are adding bets to position for a rise in the Swiss currency. The USD/CHF one-month 25 delta risk reversals fell to -1.41 – a level last seen in March 2018. The negative number indicates the implied volatility premium or demand for CHF calls (bullish bets) is higher than that for CHF puts (bearish bets). Notably, the gauge stood at...

Does anyone really think The Everything Bubble can just keep inflating forever? What do I mean by a profoundly shattering recession? I mean, a systemic, crushing recession that can’t be reversed with central bank magic, a recession that only deepens with time. The last real recession was roughly two generations ago in 1981; younger generations have no experience of a profound recession, and perhaps older folks have forgotten the shock, angst and bitterness. A...

© Pressahotkey | Dreamstime.com In the second quarter of 2019, the percentage of Switzerland’s population working rose by 1.1% and the percentage unemployed fell to 4.2%, based on the higher International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) measure. In the second quarter of 2019, 5.1 million people were working in Switzerland, 60% of the population. The number working rose 1.1% compared to the previous year, particularly among women (+2.0%). Employment rose 0.3% among men....

We recently introduced our Developed Markets (DM) Equity Allocation model. Building on the success of our EM model, this new framework extends our analysis to cover 24 DM equity markets. Our analysis is meant to assist global equity investors in assessing relative sovereign risk and optimal asset allocation across countries within the DM universe. DM EQUITY OUTLOOK Global equity markets have come under pressure in recent weeks as the US-China trade war intensified....

Opponents of e-voting have started a campaign to force a national vote on a moratorium for five years. The publicly-owned company Swiss Post, which had abandoned its electronic voting system in July over security concerns, has developed a new version. “We have already proposed a solution” to cantons, said general manager Roberto Cirillo in an interview published by the La Liberté newspaper on Friday. According to Cirillo, the company is in the process of defining the...

The Economics textbook says that when faced with a downturn, the central bank turns to easing and the central government starts borrowing and spending. This combined “stimulus” approach will fill in the troughs without shaving off the peaks; at least according to neo-Keynesian doctrine. The point is to raise what these Economists call aggregate demand. If everyday folks don’t want to spend – because a lot of them can’t – then the government will spend on their...

© Tero Vesalainen | Dreamstime.com Swiss healthcare is typically ranked the world’s second most expensive, as a percentage of GDP, after the US. In Switzerland, compulsory health insurance premiums cover 37% of healthcare costs. Much of the rest is covered by tax payers and non-reimbursable out-of-pocket payments by individuals. As part of a plan to reduce costs, this week, the health insurer Groupe Mutuel, launched a new lower cost plan which requires its clients to...

A Bloomberg article about the weekend G7 meeting says, “multilateralism is dead.”  An op-ed in the Financial Times suggests that the most important political alliance may be “rejuvenated” at the G7 meeting.  The truth is likely found somewhere in between.  Economic nationalism, personalities of (some) of the leaders are not conducive to deepening or broadening cooperation among the leading market economies.  At the same time, the G7 is an expression of...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.07% to 1.0887 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Powell speech at Jackson Hole stands before the weekend. Equities in Asia and Europe are finishing the week on a firm tone. Most markets in the Asia Pacific region closed higher today, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-week slide. European bourses are edging higher, and...