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Ignore Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Those are merely an appetizer, an intentional preamble to whet the appetite of hungry consumers looking to splurge. The real action comes in December. People look, some buy, after Thanksgiving, but as anyone counts down the actual twelve days of Christmas and celebrates the eight crazy nights of Hanukkah that’s when the retail industry makes its bank. In 2016, the month of December...

A BLS train in Kandersteg station in the Bernese Oberland region. (© Keystone / The BLS train company, which operates several routes in the regions around Bern, is to cut some 170 positions over the coming four years, for reasons of efficiency and automation. In a move criticized on Thursday by rail unions, BLS announced the cuts as part of planned efficiency gains that aim to save between CHF50-60 million ($49.8-59.2...

The smart money is liquidating assets, paying off debt and moving capital into collateral that isn’t impaired by debt or speculative valuations. The Federal Reserve’s sudden return to “accommodative” dovishness in response to the stock market’s swoon telegraphs its intent to fire up QE once the recession kicks into gear. QE (quantitative easing) are monetary policies designed to ease borrowing and the issuance of...

New US auto tariffs may impact the economy significantly more than the previous tariffs on steel and aluminium. Among the key risks for our euro area outlook, the threat of US auto tariffs is of major importance. The US Commerce Department’s investigation on national security threats posed by auto imports is due to be concluded on 17 February. Given the complexity of the global auto supply chain, it is very complicated...

© Gunnar3000 | Dreamstime.com There are various ways to measure unemployment. Switzerland’s standard measure looks at the number of people registered with unemployment offices across the country. By this measure Switzerland’s unemployment recently reached a 10 year low of 2.6%. Today, another unemployment measure was published. It shows a 0.1% increase in unemployment over the fourth quarter of 2018 to 4.6% or 227,000...

US inflation in January 2019 was, according to the CPI, the lowest in years. At just 1.55% year-over-year, the index hadn’t suggested this level since September 2016 right at the outset of what would become Reflation #3. Having hyped expectations over that interim, US policymakers now have to face the repercussions of unwinding the hysteria. CPI Changes On Energy 2016-2019 - Click to enlarge Live by oil, now die by...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.10% at 1.1336 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 snapped a four-day advance yesterday, and equities in the Asia Pacific followed suit. All the markets in the region were lower but in Australia. MSCI’s regional benchmark stalled after reached a four-month high in the...

14.02.2019 – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.8% between the 4th quarter 2017 and the 4th quarter 2018. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.6%. The EU’s unemployment rate decreased from 7.3% to 6.6%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS). Download...

Brazilian prosecutors alleged Vitol, Glencore and Trafigura and others collectively paid at least $31 million in bribes over a six-year period to Petrobras officials. (Keystone) Pressure is growing on global commodity trading firms with strong ties to Switzerland for their alleged involvement in the “Car Wash” corruption scandal in Brazil. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation is investigating two Vitol executives in...

The banquet of consequences is now being served, but the good seats have all been taken. As I discussed in We’re Overdue for a Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession, recessions have a proximate cause and a structural cause. The proximate cause is often a spike in energy costs (1973, 1990) or a financial crisis triggered by excesses of speculation and debt (2000 and 2008) or inflation (1980). Structural causes are...