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Next week’s vote on the divorce deal is likely to be defeated, and there is precious little time for an alternative before the Brexit deadline in March. The British parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s EU divorce deal will be on 15 January. The deal is likely to be rejected, as there has been little progress since December, when a first vote was called off for lack of support. The problem is that there remains no...

© Alexey Novikov | Dreamstime.com Volatile markets have been reshuffling the ranking of the world’s most valuable companies. Over the course of the last six months, Nestlé overtook Royal Dutch Shell to become Europe’s most valuable company. At the end of June 2018, Royal Dutch Shell had Europe’s highest market capitalisation (US$ 293 billion), making it the world’s 13th most valuable company, while Nestlé ranked 21st...

We’ve got to change our ornithological nomenclature. Hawks become doves because they are chickens underneath. Doves became hawks for reasons they don’t really understand. A fingers-crossed policy isn’t a robust one, so there really was no reason to expect the economy to be that way. In January 2019, especially the past few days, there are so many examples of flighty birds. Here’s an especially obvious, egregious one...

Sagging industrial production and confidence figures point to weak Q4 GDP. German industrial production (including construction) fell by 1.9% month-on-month in November, extending the sector’s decline to five out the six last prints. Year on year, industrial production was down by 4.6%, the worst performance since November 2009. While some idiosyncratic factors were likely at play, such as below-average water levels on...

The Swiss authorities are questioning the role of aircraft workers stationed in politically sensitive places away from the home base (pictured) near Lucerne. A Swiss aircraft manufacturer may have broken the law through part of a contract signed with Saudi Arabia. The foreign affairs ministry has begun a deeper investigation. Tasked with helping to maintain military training aircraft, 12 Pilatus employees are working in...

The record of the ECB’s December meeting was released, and there are two takeaways. The first is that officials may have been more concerned with the deteriorating situation than they let on at the time. Apparently, paring near-term growth forecasts was seen as a sufficient signal that risks were increasing. This allowed Draghi to maintain the “broadly balanced” risk assessment. Although Draghi did acknowledge that the...

A discussion of the outlook for 2019 in the markets and the economy by Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun and the Head of Alhambra Global Investment Research Jeff Snider. [embedded content] Related posts: Euro Credit: 2019 Outlook Gold Outlook 2019: Uncertainty Makes Gold A “Valuable Strategic Asset” – WGC Core Euro Sovereign Bonds 2019 Outlook A Couple...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.26% at 1.1287 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Optimism on trade talks between the US and China coupled with the biggest rally in WTI in two years (11%+) have helped keep the equity market recovery intact.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose today, the eighth time in the past ten...

Just as there is gradation for positive numbers, there is color to negative ones, too. On the plus side, consistently small increments marked by the infrequent jump is never to be associated with a healthy economy let alone one that is booming. A truly booming economy is one in which the small positive numbers are rare. The recovery phase preceding the boom takes that to an extreme. If conditions swing the other way,...

© Rawpixelimages | Dreamstime.com Reaching the official retirement age1 is an important milestone for many people. Some look forward to it while others dread it. Some dreading it would prefer to continue working either because they enjoy their work or would like the extra income. Some feel they are being systematically and unfairly labelled too old to work. A survey by the bank UBS showed that many people now don’t feel...