Tag Archives: newsletter

The dollar has taken a hit from the weaker than expected data Monday Tariff man is back The US economy remains solid in Q4 but there are some worrying signs for the November jobs data Friday The political pressure on Turkey from the US could increase soon; South Africa’s Q3 GDP came in well below expectations at -0.6% q/q and 0.1% y/y Japan JGB auction went poorly on supply concerns ahead of planned fiscal stimulus; RBA kept rates steady at 0.75% but the outlook was...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.29% to 1.0946 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 3(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Asia Pacific equities mostly declined in sympathy with yesterday’s large sell-off in the US and Europe. China and Taiwan were the notable exceptions, while Australia’s 2.2% decline, following the central bank meeting that resulted in what many are seeing as a hawkish hold, led the...

USD/CHF lost some additional ground for the second straight session on Tuesday. A subdued USD demand, stability in equity markets did little to provide any respite. Trump’s latest remarks opened the room for a further intraday depreciating move. The USD/CHF pair witnessed some follow-through selling on Tuesday and dropped to near two-week lows, below the 0.9900 handle in the last hour. Having repeatedly failed to find acceptance above the parity mark, the pair came...

03.12.2019 – The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in November 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).The decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for international package holidays and hotel accommodation. The prices...

Changes due to entry into force of FinSA/FinIA andadjustments to minimum reserve requirements The Swiss National Bank is amending the National Bank Ordinance (NBO). Various terms used in the NBO will be revised in connection with the entry into force of the Financial Services Act (FinSA) and the Financial Institutions Act (FinIA) as of 1 January 2020. Moreover, technical adjustments will be made to the statistical surveys in the Annex to the NBO. And finally, two...

Every year, Switzerland sets quotas for the number of work visas it issues to citizens outside the EU and EFTA. This week the government announced it would maintain the quota of 8,500 permits that was in place in 2018. In addition, it confirmed an earlier deal it struck with the UK to issue up to 3,500 work visas to British citizens in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The 8,500 quota is made up of 4,500 B-permits for stays over one year, and 4,000 short-term L-permits...

The basic idea behind the Quantity Theory of Money could be stated as: too much money supply is chasing too little goods supply, so prices rise. We have debunked this from several angles. For example, we can use a technique that every first year student in physics is expected to know. Dimensional analysis looks at the units on both sides of an equation. Money supply is a quantity, a stocks, i.e. dollars or tons in the gold standard. Goods supply is a quantity per...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.10% to 1.0999 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Mostly better than expected manufacturing PMI readings for December, including in China, is providing the latest incentive for equity market bulls. Led by the Nikkei, which was aided by a weaker yen major equity markets in Asia Pacific rallied and recouped most of the nearly 1% loss...

02.12.2019 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.1% in nominal terms in October 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.9% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.7% in October 2019 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes...

Over the weekend, China reported stronger than expected November PMI readings while Korea reported weaker than expected November trade data.  While the China data is welcome, we put more weight on Korea trade numbers, which typically serve as a good bellwether for the entire region.  Press reports suggest the Phase One trade deal has stalled due to Hong Kong legislation passed by the US Congress.  Until a deal is wrapped up, we remain cautious on EM.  AMERICAS Chile...