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Tag Archives: newsletter

There’s No Easy Way Out of This Debt Spiral

We're about six weeks into fiscal year 2024, but if this year looks anything like last year, we can assume the federal government will continue to pile up debt at astonishing rates.  According to the September Monthly Treasury report, the US government accumulated an additional 1.7 trillion dollars in debt for the 2023 fiscal year, which ended October 31.  That' up by $319 billion, or 23 percent, from the 2022 fiscal year. As recently as June, budget-watchers had...

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Israel Isn’t the Brilliant Friend of Freedom the Beltway Claims It to Be

It certainly wasn’t the only time calling a perceived ally of DC a democracy became a tradition with India. While India could have been the first non-European “ally” to receive such treatment since the heydays of the Cold War, the immense support India currently enjoys despite a litany of human rights violations will never outclass the kind of prowess Tel Aviv has from the grassroots and political elite in the Beltway. Between the dying enthusiasm for nation-building...

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The Federal Reserve is Running Losses. Does This Cost Anyone Anything?

Financial statements of the US Federal Reserve, which consists of the board of governors in Washington and twelve district reserve banks across the country, indicate that the consolidated system has generated both capital and operating losses for the past couple of years. The Fed was created in 1913 to issue and circulate an “elastic currency” that could respond to consumers’ demand for cash, end bank runs known then as “money panics,” and serve as a “lender of last...

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The Dollar’s Recovery has been Extended, but it may Give North American Operators a Better Selling Opportunity

Overview: The dollar's sell-off last week was extreme and it recovered yesterday and through the European session today. The Australian dollar has been hit the hardest. It is off more than 1% today after the RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 bp (to 4.35%). Still, the US dollar's gains have stretched intraday momentum indicators, suggesting the upside correction may be nearly over. The greenback's moves appear to have been driven by interest rate expectations. Recall...

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Killers of the Flower Moon Is about Government Failure

Most reviewers of the motion picture Killers of the Flower Moon distill just one lesson from the story: greed is deadly. The love of money leads to evil. But the real lesson should be of government failure. The movie follows the book, Killers of the Flower Moon: The Osage Murders and the Birth of the FBI by David Grann. It tells the story of the Osage tribe during the 1920s oil boom in Oklahoma. Tribal members became very wealthy because of the discovery of oil on...

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Is Migration a Tool of the Consumptive Class?

Migration is part of the wider concept of economic freedom. This makes it desirable if prosperity is the goal of policy. But more applicable to the current attitudes and values of Western leaders than mundane economic arguments, migration presents an opportunity to increase the pool from which they extract real income. This is required in the face of poor demographics and growing socialistic ambitions. The extraction is achieved by taxation and inflation, which...

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The Interest Rate Shock Will Blow Up the Government’s Ponzi Game

In the international fixed-income markets, interest rates are rising, and the decades-long trend of declining bond yields has undoubtedly been broken. On August 2, 2022, the ten-year United States Treasury yield was 0.5 percent; on October 9, 2023, it had risen to 4.8 percent. Long-term interest rates in Europe, Asia, and Latin America have also risen sharply. The key reason for the rise in capital market interest rates is the central banks’ interest rate hikes—a...

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