Tag Archives: newsletter

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.1375 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar has recouped most of yesterday’s declines. However, as we have seen over the past couple of sessions, he North American market appears more dollar negative than Europe or Asia. The dollar’s rise through the European morning has...

Payerne Airport officials hope to increase the number of civilian flights from 400 a year to 8,400. (Keystone) After years of negotiations, Payerne’s regional civilian airport and future business aviation hub is starting to take shape. The first stone of an airport building in northwest Switzerland has been laid. “It’s a day of celebration and joy,” Fribourg businessman Damien Piller told reporters at a ceremony to mark...

- Click to enlarge Quelle est la raison profonde – intime –des crises financières ? Comment sont provoqués les kracks et pourquoi les bulles implosent-elles ? Toujours pour une simple et unique raison qui est que les paris irraisonnés et démesurés entrepris par le monde de la finance le sont avec de l’argent emprunté ! Le dernier épisode de crise grave – les subprimes – n’ayant à cet égard pas failli à cette...

Milestones in the Pursuit of Insolvency A new milestone on the American populaces’ collective pursuit of insolvency was reached this week. According to a report published on Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total U.S. household debt jumped to a new record high of $12.84 trillion during the second quarter. This included an increase of $552 billion from a year ago. United States Consumer DebtUS consumer...

Industrial Production disappointed in the US last month, dragged down by auto production. Despite the return of an oil sector tailwind, IP was up just 2.2% year-over-year in July 2017 according to Federal Reserve statistics. It marks the fourth consecutive month stuck around 2% growth. The lack of further acceleration is unusual in the historical context, especially following an extended period of contraction. This...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: Jackson Hole marks the end of the investors’ summer and a beginning of a challenging several weeks. The abandonment of national business leaders from Trump’s advisory board and strong words by Republican Senator Corker, followed by the dismissal of the controversial Bannon, could be a turning point. Neither Yellen nor Draghi may not even address the current policy stance as they discuss the topic at hand,...

Overview The euro has lost some momentum versus the franc, the main reason is as usual monetary policy: Draghi does not want to talk about an early end of his bond buying programming at Jackson Hole. This had been confirmed by economic data: only 1.2% core inflation compared to a long-term inflation target of 2%. Consequently the Swissie appreciated during the week. Eurozone Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, Jul...

Gold and silver rise as stocks fall sharply after Barcelona attack Gold, silver 0.6% higher in week after last weeks 2%, 5% rise Palladium +36% ytd, breaks out & reaches 16 year high (chart) Gold to silver ratio falls to mid 75s after silver gains last week Perfect storm of financial and geopolitical tensions is driving safe haven demand and should see higher prices Weekly close over $1,300 could see gold quickly...