Tag Archives: newsletter

The idea that interest rates have nowhere to go but up is very much like saying the bond market has it all wrong. That is one reason why the rhetoric has been ratcheted that much higher of late, particularly since the Fed “raised rates” for a third time in March. Such “hawkishness” by convention should not go so unnoticed, and yet yields and curves are once more paying little attention to Janet Yellen. When Mohamed...

The US jobs growth slowed considerably more than expected in March and the disappointment pushed the dollar and equities initially lower.  United States Nonfarm payrolls The US created 98k jobs in March, well below market expectations for around 175k jobs. Adding insult to injury, revisions to the January and February data took off another 38k job. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, March 2017(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm...

Chalet apartments in Verbier – © Chechotkin | Dreamstime.com On 11 March 2012, Swiss voted to accept a law restricting the construction of secondary residences, homes that are only used occasionally by owners living somewhere else. Under the law no more than 20% of a municipality’s housing can be second homes. Those with percentages above 20% run into building restrictions. The initiative was nick named Lex Weber after...

Summary Reserve Bank of India surprised markets with the start of the tightening cycle. The Czech National Bank (CNB) ended the EUR/CZK floor. Israeli central bank said it won’t hike rates until Q2 2018. Both S&P and Fitch cut South Africa’s rating one notch to sub-investment grade BB+. Moody’s put South Africa’s Baa2 rating on review for a downgrade S&P upgraded Argentina one notch to B with stable outlook....

– Gold silver oil spike after U.S. bombs Syria– Gold and silver spike 1% as oil rises 1.4% – Gold breaks 200 day moving average, 4th week of gains– Stocks fall after U.S. strikes in Syria rattle markets – U.S. missiles hit airbase; Lavrov says no Russian casualties; Russia deploys cruise missile frigate to Syria – Russia denounces ‘aggression’ & warns of ‘considerable damage’ U.S. ties– “Aggression against a...

As world “leaders” gathered in Davos in January 2016, they did so among financial turmoil that was creating more economic havoc than at any time since the Great “Recession.” Having seen especially US QE as the equivalent of money printing, their focus was drawn elsewhere to at least attempt an explanation for the contradiction. They initially settled on the Fed’s rate hike, where terminating “ultra-loose” policies was...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered unemployment in March 2017 – According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, 152,280 unemployed persons were registered at the regional employment services centers (RAV) at the end of March 2017, 7,529 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus fell from 3.6% in February 2017 to 3.4% in the reporting month.  Switzerland...

The consumer price index (IPC) increased by 0.2% in March 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.7 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, March 2017(see more posts on Switzerland Consumer Price Index, ) Source: investing.com - Click to...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Orders of Preference Last week, we discussed the growing stress in the credit markets. We noted this is a reason to buy gold, and likely the reason why gold buying has ticked up since just before Christmas. Many people live in countries where another paper scrip is declared to be money — to picture the absurdity, just...

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year.  The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical.  The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it...