Tag Archives: newsletter

USD/CHF EUR/CHF EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge EUR/JPY [embedded content] EUR/JPY with Technical Indicators, October 10(see more posts on EUR/JPY, ) - Click to enlarge EUR/AUD [embedded content] EUR/AUD with Technical Indicators, October 10(see more posts on eur/aud, ) - Click to enlarge USD/CHF [embedded content]...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Where the Good Things Go Many gold bugs make an implicit assumption. Gold is good, therefore it will go up. This is tempting but wrong (ignoring that gold does not go anywhere, it’s the dollar that goes down). One error is in thinking that now you have discovered a truth, everyone else will see it quickly. And there is a...

Over the past few weeks, the markets have come to accept the likelihood of a December Fed hike. US interest rates have adjusted. The pricing of December Fed funds futures contract is consistent with around an 80% chance of a hike. The two-year yield is trading at the upper end of what is expected to be the Fed funds target range at the end of the year, after slipping below the current range a month ago. The Dollar Index...

Stock Markets EM FX ended the week under pressure, as US data points to a rate hike in December and perhaps more in 2018. FOMC minutes this Wednesday will be closely studied for clues. US retail sales and CPI data Friday will also be important. We believe the most vulnerable currencies in this environment are ZAR and TRY, but one could also add MXN and perhaps RUB to that mix too. Stock Markets Emerging Markets,...

© Michael Smith | Dreamstime - Click to enlarge According to Le Matin, Jean-Luc Addor, a parliamentarian and member of the Swiss People’s Party (UDC/SVP), wants to know what savings could be made if pensions paid to those abroad were adjusted for living costs in those countries. According to the newspaper, after the rejection of the vote to reform Swiss pensions, Addor said that the rejected reform was aimed at...

– Gold investment in Germany surged in past 10 years – Germans are largest gold buyers in world: WGC research – Gold investment in Germany surges to €6.8B in 2016– Gold demand per person is highest in world – double Chinese, UK and U.S. demand– Gold one of the most popular investment for retail investors especially those with high incomes– 59% of respondents agreed with the statement thatgold will never lose its value...

Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua gave me a most appreciated opportunity to present my dollar views on Bloomberg TV earlier today. They also let me opine about current events, like Catalonia’s push for independence and May’s troubled speech at the Tory Party Conference. Bloomberg made two clips of the discussion available. The first is about the dollar’s outlook broadly. I suggest a combination of technical and fundamental...

Sometimes economics can be complicated, such as why the labor market has slowed in such lingering fashion since early 2015. Sometimes economics can be easy, such as why there is so much less to the economy this year than thought. The easy part relates to the hard part. The labor market slowed and so did national income. Though so much of official focus is on debt supplementation, it’s always, always about income. US...

I would hazard a guess that an increasing number of tax donkeys are considering dropping out as a means of increasing their happiness and satisfaction with life. Since federal income taxes are in the spotlight, let’s ask a question that rarely (if ever) makes it into the public discussion: what if the tax donkeys who pay most of the tax rebel? There are several likely reasons why this question rarely arises. 1. Most...

United States US interest rates and the dollar rose in response to the data. It was firm before the report. The US Dollar Index is up for a fourth consecutive week. It is the longest streak since Q1. US 10-year yields are near 2.40%, an area that has blocked stronger gains for nearly six months. Nonfarm payrolls The storms that hit the US had a greater impact on the US labor market than many expected. The recorded a...