Tag Archives: newsletter

Corporate buybacks provide the key analogy for the economy as a whole. Central banks have been running a grand experiment for 9 years, and now we’re about to find out if it succeeds or fails. For 9 unprecedented years, central banks have pushed the pedal of monetary stimulus to the metal: near-zero interest rates, monumental purchases of bonds, mortgage-backed securities, stocks and corporate bonds, injecting trillions...

Meandering Prices Prices rise and prices fall.  So, too, they fall and rise.  This is how the supply and demand sweet spot is continually discovered – and rediscovered. When supply exceeds demand for a good or service, prices fall. Conversely, when demand exceeds supply, prices rise. Supply and DemandSupply and demand (the curves usually shown in such charts are unrealistic, as bids and offers in the market are...

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks to the media during a news conference in Bern June 14, 2012. REUTERS/Ruben Sprich - Click to enlarge Ladies and gentlemen Today, the Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance at the University of St. Gallen celebrates its 50th anniversary. Let me extend my sincere congratulations on reaching this milestone. Our financial system has evolved steadily over the past five...

According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, euro area real GDP expanded by 0.4% q-o-q in Q1 2018 (1.7% q-o-q annualised, 2.5% y-o-y), in line with consensus expectations (0.4%) and down from an upwardly revised figure of 0.7% q-o-q for Q4 2017. The implications of the growth slowdown on ECB staff projections should remain limited, in our view. In March, they had pencilled in 0.7% q-o-q GDP growth for Q1, but...

A worker checks the organic fresh food selection at a Coop supermarket in Wetzikon in 2007 (Keystone) - Click to enlarge One in ten fresh food items sold in Switzerland last year was organic, according to the Federal Office for Agriculture. The market share of organic products rose from 4.6% in 2007 to 9% in 2017, while the share of fresh organic food sold in Switzerland rose from just under 6% to 11.5% over...

The US dollar fell last month in response to the disappointing non-farm payroll report. However, in general, the jobs report is not the market mover that it was in the past. With unemployment is at cyclical lows of 4.1% and poised to fall further. Weekly jobless claims and continuing claims at or near lows in a generation, though over qualification is more difficult than previously. The monthly net job creation is a...

The status quo, in all its various forms, is dominated by incentives that strengthen the centralization of wealth and power. As longtime readers know, my work aims to 1) explain why the status quo — the socio-economic-political system we inhabit — is unsustainable, divisive, and doomed to collapse under its own weight and 2) sketch out an alternative Mode of Production/way of living that is sustainable, consumes far...

Gold Price Gains Due To Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates – Investors should not be put off by higher interest rates, World Gold Council research finds they do not always have a negative impact on gold – Only short-term movements in gold are ‘heavily influenced by US interest rates’ – Correlation between US interest rates and gold is waning, with US dollar a better indicator of short-term gold price – New...

- Click to enlarge Als Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865) zur Finanzierung des „American Civil War“ bei den Banken um Kredit nachsuchte, sah er sich mit Zinsen von 24 bis 36% konfrontiert. Lincoln sträubte sich gegen solchen Zinswucher und suchte nach einer anderen Lösung. Sie kam von Colonel „Dick“ Taylor, einem Geschäftsmann aus Illinois. „Just get to Congress to pass a bill authorizing the printing of full legal...

This week’s Eurostat releases revealed that public finances continue to improve in most euro area member states. As a result of falling deficits, low interest rates and stronger nominal growth, the ratio of euro area government debt to GDP fell to a six-year low of 86.7% in Q4 2017. Although sovereign debt sustainability remains shaky in countries like Italy, it is fair to say that we have moved from self-defeating...