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A distillation of the macro backdrop and important price considerations for selected currencies. US Dollar The market always has taken the Fed’s forecast for three rate hikes next year with a large dose of skepticism. The fed funds futures strip implies growing expectations that the Fed pauses after a hike in December and Q1 19. It is still unclear the direction of fiscal policy next year. It may be difficult for the...

Investment Grade Junk All is now bustle and hubbub in the late months of the year.  This goes for the stock market too. If you recall, on September 22nd the S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 2,940.  This was nearly 100 points above the prior high of 2,847, which was notched on January 26th.  For a brief moment, it appeared the stock market had resumed its near decade long upward trend. Chartists witnessed the take...

For Janet Yellen, during her somewhat brief single term she never made the same kind of effort as Ben Bernanke had. Her immediate predecessor, Bernanke, wanted to make the Federal Reserve into what he saw as the 21st century central bank icon. Monetary policy wouldn’t operate on the basis of secrecy and ambiguity. Transparency became far more than a buzzword. Way back in 2012, under Bernanke’s direction officials would...

The gross median monthly salary in Switzerland is CHF6,502 (2018). The pharmaceutical industry and insurance companies have overtaken banking as the best paid sectors in Switzerland, according to the NZZ am Sonntag. In 2016, bank executives took home an average gross salary of CHF220,000 ($220,394) per year, which is CHF 40,000 less than ten years ago. The pharmaceutical sector, in contrast, is paying CHF280,000. The...

Precious Metals Patterns Prices in financial and commodity markets exhibit seasonal trends. We have for example shown you how stocks of pharmaceutical companies tend to rise in winter due to higher demand, or the end-of-year rally phenomenon (last issue), which can be observed almost every year. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium are subject to seasonal trends as well. Although gold and silver are generally perceived...

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away we wrote a series of articles arguing that bitcoin is not money and is not sound. Bitcoin was skyrocketing at the time, as we wrote most of them between July 30 and Oct 1 last year. Back in those halcyon days, volatility was deemed to be a feature. That is, volatility in the upward direction was loved by everyone who said that bitcoin is money, in their desire to make money. In...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.32% at 1.1378 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: There is an uneasy calm in the global capital markets. Investors are digesting the weekend news, which includes the failure of APEC to issue a joint statement due to US-China tensions that we highlighted by dueling speeches by China...

Often, and apparently wrongly attributed to Mark Twain is the observation that it is not what we know that gets into trouble, but “what we know that just ain’t so.” Now though, investors suffer from a different problem. Several processes are in motion, and there is little confidence in their outcomes. Among these are Brexit, US-China trade, the trajectory of Fed policy, and the EC’s efforts to enforce the agreed-upon...

Diplomats and finance ministry officials have the highest travel-related expenses, The expenses of Swiss civil servants added up to CHF 121.7 million ($122 million) last year, according to the SonntagsBlick newspaper. Counting the 34,800 full-time positions in the federal administration in 2016, that level of spending amounts to almost CHF3,500 per civil servant. The biggest spender is the defence ministry, with an...

Disappointing consumption numbers point to growth deceleration in early 2019, but government measures beginning to be felt. Hard data out of China for October was mixed. On the positive side, growth in infrastructure picked up, suggesting the government’s fiscal policy easing is taking effect in the real economy. Industrial production numbers stopped declining, and the mining sector has a particularly strong...