Tag Archives: Interest rates

This is a brief preview of our annual Gold Outlook Report. Every year we take an in-depth look at the market dynamics and drivers and finally, give our predictions for gold and silver prices over the coming year. Click here to download a free copy of the full Gold Outlook Report 2024. The talking heads are talking about recession, unemployment, and inflation. The same as they’ve always done, though now perhaps with a bit more urgency. Most people have...

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites. “Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P...

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies. From a portfolio management perspective, we must understand what happens during election years concerning the stock market and investor returns. Since 1833, the S&P 500 index has...

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average American as follows. “New...

So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over?  The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors have had few places to hide. Of the major asset classes we follow closely, only two – gold and commodities – were higher by more than a...

As I sit here writing this Sunday afternoon, the US has just shot down a third UFO in the last 3 days in addition to the Chinese “weather” balloon last week. I have no insight into what these things might be but I do wonder if we haven’t declared war on the National Weather Service. The federal government has become so sprawling that it could easily  be the case that NORAD has no idea what the NWS has up in the air. And with all the UFO shooting going on, the NWS...

Jeff Snider, Headmaster of Eurodollar University, joins the podcast to talk about the perverse complexities of the Eurodollar system. What even is a Eurodollar? Why was the system created? Keith and Jeff discuss the Eurodollar market and then give their hot takes in a hilarious lightning round. We hope you enjoy this insightful, whirlwind of an episode! Follow Jeff on Twitter and his website. Connect with Keith Weiner and Monetary Metals on Twitter: @RealKeithWeiner...

Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down 1.2%, exports are down 3.8%, and imports are down 4.3% over the last 3 months. Real disposable income is up 0.8% in the last six months but was down...

When we think about the challenges facing an investor today, the big problems, the things we worry about that could cause a lot more harm than some interest rate hikes, are mostly outside the United States. China is prominent this weekend because of demonstrations against their zero COVID policies. The Chinese people appear to be pretty well fed up with the endless lockdowns and have finally decided to try and do something about it. Unfortunately, I’m not sure...

CEO of Monetary Metals Keith Weiner gave a talk at the New Orleans Investment Conference on how to build and destroy a pension fund system in 22 easy steps. If you’d like to see an excellent case study of these steps in action, see the United Kingdom. This is a summary of Keith’s talk published with his permission. Our interest rate system is like a wrecking ball. It swings to one side of the street and destroys one side of town (the falling interest rate). Then when...