Tag Archives: inflation

The headlines last Friday were ominous: Inflation Hits Highest Level in Nearly 40 Years Inflation is Painfully High… Groceries and Christmas Presents Are Going To Cost More Inflation is Soaring.. America’s Inflation Burst This morning on Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, former Harvard endowment manager, former bond king apprentice, economist and the man who seems to have a permanent presence on CNBC, had this to say: The characterization of inflation as transitory...

What was it that old Iowa cornfield movie said? If you build it, he will come. Well, this isn’t quite that, rather something more along the lines of: if you reopen it, some will come back to work. Not nearly as snappy, far less likely to sell anyone movie tickets, yet this other tagline might contribute much to our understanding of “growth scare” and its affect on the US labor market. This topic deserves a much deeper dive than I am going to give it (for now). What...

For many months now, the mainstream financial press and market analysts have been anticipating some kind of violent reaction or a “taper tantrum”, based on what they described as “hawkish” statements from the Fed and other central banks. Removing the “crutches” from the economy, by hiking interest rates and stopping the asset purchasing programs, was often cited as a serious threat the economic recovery and was expected to have a severe impact on stock market performance. And yet,...

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: dollar up for reasons no one can explain; yield curve flattening dramatically resisting the BOND ROUT!!! everyone has said is inevitable; a very hawkish Fed increasingly certain about inflation risks; then, the eurodollar curve inverts which blasts Jay Powell’s dreamland in favor of the proper interpretation, deflation, of those first two. Twenty-eighteen, right? Yes. And also today. Quirky and kinky, it doesn’t seem like a lot,...

Overview: A pessimistic assessment offered by the CEO of Moderna shattered the fragile calm seen yesterday after the pre-weekend turmoil.  Risk appetites shriveled, sending equity markets lower and the bond markets higher.  Funding currencies rallied, with the euro and yen moving above last week's highs.  The uncertainty weighs on sentiment and makes investors question what they previously were certain of.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell over 1% before the weekend...

Black Friday 2021 saw the largest stock market sell-off since 1931. Is this the start of a bigger crash, has the trend changed or is this just a one-time blip? We ask Gareth Soloway of InTheMoneyStocks.com what his charts are suggesting and why he is so bullish on gold [embedded content] Make sure you don’t miss a single episode… Subscribe to our YouTube channel [embedded content] You Might Also Like...

Overview: The fire that burnt through the capital markets before the weekend, triggered by the new Covid mutation, burned itself out in the Asian Pacific equity trading earlier today. A semblance of stability, albeit fragile and tentative, has emerged. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 1%, led by real estate, information technology, and energy.  US index futures are trading higher, with the NASDAQ leading.  Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer.  The US 10-year Treasury...

The new covid variant and quick imposition of travel restrictions on several countries in southern Africa have injected a new dynamic into the mix.  It may take the better part of the next couple of weeks for scientists to get a handle on what the new mutation means and the efficacy of the current vaccination and pill regime.The initial net impact has been to reduce risk, as seen in the sharp sell-off of stocks.  Emerging market currencies extended their losses. ...

Do governments hate gold? The answer: Yes — Governments hate gold because they cannot print it, and it is difficult for them to control. Because they cannot print it or easily control it, gold has little use to them during the never-ending schemes to tax and then redistribute wealth. India is a recent example of a government trying to control gold imports through increased taxation on imports and imposing rules, such as that importers had to re-export 20% of imports...

When Japan’s Ministry of Trade, Economy, and Industry (METI) reported earlier in November that Japanese Industrial Production (IP) had plunged again during the month of September 2021, it was so easy to just dismiss the decline as a product of delta COVID. According to these figures, industrial output fell an unsightly 5.4%…from August 2021, meaning month-over-month not year-over-year. Altogether, IP in Japan is down just over 10% since June, nearly 11% since...