Tag Archives: FX Trends

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, April 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The Swiss Franc may come under pressure tomorrow after Consumer Price Index inflation numbers are released. Inflation is expected to fall from 0.6% to 0.5% for the month of March and any weakening in the numbers could see the Swiss Franc weaken. Fridays unemployment data from Switzerland could also give a...

Summary: China’s share of global reserves is in line with expectations prior to its inclusion in the SDR. Three factors influencing allocated reserves – valuation, portfolio decisions, and China’s gradual inclusion in allocated reserves. The Swiss franc’s as a reserve asset diminished, but the “other” category appeared robust. The inclusion of the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket at the start of Q4 16 did not...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year.  The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical.  The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it...

Swiss Franc Currency Index Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is...

Swiss Franc Currency Index Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is...

Summary: MSCI Emerging Market Index is up 12.25% here in Q1. The index is approaching long-standing technical objectives. Look for profit-taking ahead of quarter-end as fund managers rebalance. This Great Graphic from Bloomberg is a weekly bar chart of MSCI Emerging Market equity index.   In H2 15 and H1 16, it carved out a head and shoulders bottom that we identify on the chart. We also drew in the neckline...

(draft of monthly column for Caixin) The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States surprised many people, even seasoned political observers and astute investors. He failed to win the popular vote but did carry the electoral college, which is how the US elects its chief executive. His victory is a bit of a Rorshcach test, where people project the issues that allowed Trump to succeed, with...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar fell against all the major currencies in the first three months of 2017. The weakness initially seemed to be a correction to the rally, which began before the US election last year.  The dollar recovered in February, in anticipation of a hawkish Fed in March. The Fed did hike rates, but the...

EUR/CHF The SNB is intervening for 3 bn. CHF per week, this is far too much at these elevated Euro and Dollar levels. With two times positive economic data (here and here) about good news on internal demand, she might be finally be ready to let the euro fall. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate has opened up flat...