Tag Archives: Featured

All the status quo “fixes” only hasten the collapse of the status quo. That economic, social and political conflict is accelerating is self-evident. What’s open to debate are the core drivers of conflict / disorder /unraveling. Here’s the core self-reinforcing dynamic in my view: 1. The status quo elites can no longer mask soaring costs of essentials nor soaring wealth / income inequality between the top .01% (Oligarchs), the top 9.99% who enrich the Oligarchs with...

EM FX has rallied sharply in recent weeks, helped by growing optimism that we’ve seen the worst of the US-China trade war Given our more constructive outlook on EM, we believe MSCI EM FX should eventually test the 1657.50 high from July We see continued divergences within the asset class Our 1-rated (strongest fundamentals) grouping for Q4 2019 consists of TWD, THB, PHP, CNY, and KRW Our 5-rated (weakest fundamentals) grouping for Q4 2019 consists of ZAR, TRY, LKR,...

DLT promises to make trading securities faster and cheaper. (Keystone / Patrick Sinkel) A Swiss-German consortium has successful traded company shares on a blockchain-style digital platform using a Swiss franc-backed stablecoin to instantly settle the transaction. The trade marked a significant step towards creating a new breed of stock exchange. Germany’s largest stock exchange Deutsche Börse teamed up with telecommunications company Swisscom, three Swiss banks and...

With interest rates in many countries close to zero or even negative, some commentators are of the view that monetary policy of the central banks are likely to become less effective in navigating the economy. In fact it is held that we have most likely reached a situation that the economy is approaching a liquidity trap. But what does this mean? In the popular framework of thinking that originates from the writings of John Maynard Keynes, economic activity is...

Press reports suggest that the mood in Beijing is pessimistic after President Trump pushed back against tariff rollbacks Fed Chair Powell met with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday Hungary is expected to keep rates steady; the deadline to form a government in Israel is fast approaching RBA released dovish minutes from its November policy meeting The dollar is mostly firmer against the majors as markets await fresh drivers. Kiwi and Stockie are...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.25% to 1.0981 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The run-up in equities continues to be the dominant development in the capital markets. Although the Japanese and South Korean bourses fell, the rise in Australia, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan underpin the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The Hang Seng’s gains (1.5% on top of yesterday’s...

The ITU has identified the ‘digital gender gap’ as a problem in poorer countries, where men are getting online faster than women. What did the United Nations ever do for us? At the risk of a bit of cliched riffing on that famous scene in Monty Python’s Life of Brian, this month’s column is going to take a look at things the UN does that you may not know about. And one thing in particular: promoting fair and equitable access to the internet. Don’t click away! This is...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

© Swisshippo | Dreamstime.com Recently published statistics suggest most Swiss prefer home grown animal products. Three quarters (75%) of those surveyed said they preferred Swiss eggs and more than half preferred Swiss meat (51%) and dairy products (59%). Reasons for preferring local animal products were to support local farmers (nearly 25%), low food miles (15%) and product quality (15%). 40% considered Swiss agriculture to be trustworthy and 33% thought it was...

Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets? When is “Not-QE” QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE. We can constructively recall the story that Abraham Lincoln famously recounted in 1862: ‘If I should call a sheep’s tail a leg, how many legs would it have?’ ‘No, only four; for my calling the tail a leg would not...