Tag Archives: Featured

The real heresy here is the American economy is now rigged for downward mobility. In the conventional narrative, one’s economic class is overshadowed by one’s political belief structure: liberal, conservative, libertarian, etc. In terms of economic class, the conventional narrative divides people into their ideological beliefs about economic ideologies: free market capitalism, socialism, etc. Economic class is one of...

Delegates at the ILO’s annual conference in Geneva last year Employees who are active in trade unions are not sufficiently protected from being sacked in Switzerland, according to the International Labour Organization (ILO). The Geneva-based body has added Switzerland to a blacklist – just before a centenary conference in the Swiss city. The list comprises 40 countries that violate ILO conventions. Together with Greece...

Before the stock market’s slide beginning in early October, for most people they heard the economy was booming, the labor market was unbelievably good, an inflationary breakout just over the horizon. Jay Powell did as much as anyone to foster this belief, chief caretaker to the narrative. He and his fellow central bankers couldn’t use the word “strong” enough. After the market slide through Christmas Eve, everything...

A Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet lands during an assessment at the Swiss Army airbase in Payerne on April 30 The Federal Council has changed its approach to buying new combat aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles. Swiss voters will now be able to have a say only on the fighter jets, on which the government wants to spend no more than CHF6 billion ($5.95 billion). It has asked the defence ministry to present a planning...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% at 1.1285 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Since the presidential tweets on May 3, the US had the initiative in the negotiations with China, but today, China has pushed back.  It is cool to the idea promoted by the US that trade talks will resume shortly.  Now it may take the...

16.05.2019 – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.8% between the 1st quarter 2018 and the 1st quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined from 5.2% to 4.9%. The EU’s unemployment rate decreased from 7.4% to 6.8%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS). Download press release: 1st...

We are adjusting downward our year-end targets for the 10-year US Treasury and Bund yields. Taking hold of two important changes to our central macroeconomic scenarios, we are adjusting downward our year-end target for the 10-year US Treasury yield from 3.0% to 2.8% and the Bund yield from 0.5% to 0.3%. The drivers behind this include lower inflation expectations, rising US-China trade tensions against a constant...

Far from retirement age: ministers Keller-Sutter (left) and Berset. (Keystone / Anthony Anex) The government has announced measures to help Swiss-based workers have better access to the job market. Plans to help older people out of a job are also outlined. The measures, outlined on Wednesdayexternal link by interior minister Alain Berset and justice minister Karin Keller-Sutter, are part of efforts to adapt to an ageing...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.02% at 1.1299 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Retail sales and industrial production disappointed in both the US and China prior to the end of the tariff truce, declared by the US in a series of presidential tweets on May 5. The reaction function of the US to the drop in equities was...

Here is an overview of the broad macro considerations for the euro, with some thoughts about the price action, including volatility. It is shared not so much as an argument as a sketch the considerations that drive a view.  1. An 18-month low for the euro was set on April 26 a little above $1.11, immediately after the US reported a stronger than expected Q1 GDP report. The euro has been consolidating here in May and has...