Tag Archives: Featured

Keith Weiner, chairman of the Gold Standard Institute United States, will be presenting in Zurich, this Wednesday, October 14 at 18.30. Title: Our Monetary System is Failing, and what we can do against it We hope that the Swiss National Bank will remain safe, during the collapse of the monetary system. We fear the collapse because money flows will direct towards Switzerland again and threaten the solvability of our central bank. Some background in English on the letter to Tsipras, in...

First week of February: Speculators are closing down their short positions on the euro– both against the dollar and against CHF. The carry trade is breaking down into a reverse carry trade. This leads to a strengthening of the euro versus CHF. Given that US data was better than expected, the speculative USD against CHF position should further augment. It was at 4600 contracts versus CHF.No SNB interventions: Sight deposits decreased slightly by 0.2 billion CHF, this implies that the SNB is...

Sehr geehrter Premierminister Alexis Tsipras, Zunächst herzlichen Glückwunsch zur neu gebildeten Regierung.Leider hat sich damit nicht viel geändert. Der Euro bietet seit langem Griechenland einen perversen Anreiz Geld zu leihen. Nun ist Ihr Land in der Schuldenfalle. Durch herkömmliche Mittel kann Griechenland nicht zurückzahlen. Je früher man diese einfache Tatsache anerkennt, desto besser. Die Troika droht die Kosten des Ausscheidens aus dem Euro zu maximieren. Sie kann den Zugang zu...

We’re going to be introducing some new formats. One of them is quick article links, with the good ones labelled Pure Gold and the bad ones labelled Soggy Dollars. Pure Gold When a Fed-induced boom turns to bust: “In the lynch-mob atmosphere that inevitably follows the bust cycle of Fed-induced business cycles, it was not hard to convince Americans that the corporate bankruptcies and the subsequent recession were the handiwork of criminal executives.” Of course, this sentiment prevails...

Standard deviation (sigma σ) measures volatility or the dispersion of random values around the mean of a variable such as a portfolio or individual stock prices, but does not measure the direction of a trend. Standard Deviation as volatility measure What has become the bedrock of finance is an out-of-date almost universally accepted finance theory, which uses the statistical normal distribution (the Gaussian bell curve) as the measure of risk per se. In reality stocks are found not to be...

In the famous Sherlock Holmes Story, the detective identified the perpetrator from the fact that a dog didn’t bark. The dog didn’t bark because it knew the perpetrator. This story makes a good analogy to what happened on Thursday, Sep 17. Perhaps I should say what did not happen. The Fed did not raise the interest rate. In fact, the Fed would bankrupt itself if it tried to raise rates significantly. However, it had set everyone’s expectations that it would hike interest. It risks losing...

Consider the sport of betting on the sport of horse racing. It’s actually similar to the analysis of the gold and silver markets. How’s that? The Gold Cup Horses First, there is the manic-depressive crowd. Sometimes (as we are told—we don’t hang out at race tracks) the bettors sometimes get overly excited about a horse with slim chances to win, or get totally unexcited about a strong horse. The track responds by lowering or raising the payout for winning, respectively. The more betting...

The stock market works very differently than the natural world. When an animal is spooked, its first reaction is to freeze. Naturalists say that freezing helps animals escape the attention of predators, which hunt by sensing movement. Try that trick in the stock market – freezing when you should be taking action – and you’ll either be knocked silly by the bears or left behind by the bulls. Instincts are counter-productive We do not believe in the “rely on your gut” principle, propagated on...

As I have discussed previously, if you borrow cash then it’s not income. This is why no one in his right mind borrows to buy consumer goods. Those who try cannot sustain it for long.What if someone else borrows? Suppose someone else—let’s call her Jordyn—buys your house from you, at a higher price than you originally paid for it. You can spend some of the gain. Of course she is just paying you with her borrowed proceeds, but most people think this is totally different than if you borrow to...

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) shows that the financial markets have always been awash with its own brand of Sirens, who dolefully prophesied the complete collapse of whole economic systems. For him Pericles gave the best advice: “The key is not to predict the future, but to be prepared for it!” —————————————————————————————— In Homer’s Odyssey, the Sirens were dangerous and beautiful maidens, who irresistibly lured sailors with their enchanting, but sad, music and...